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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Politics Vol $7,242,772 144 traders

April 300%
May 310%
June 300%
September 3027%
$7,242,772 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

10
Chance
May 31 Resolved
0%
June 30 Resolved
0%
September 30
27% ▲ 4
June 15 Resolved
0%
June 22 Resolved
0%
December 31
37% ▲ 4
July 31
6% ▲ 2
August 31
20% ▲ 3
March 31 Resolved
0%
April 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xa807…1021 BUY Yes $2.00 4m ago
  • 0xfda8…126f BUY Yes $2.00 4m ago
  • 0x08f9…18f2 BUY No $2.01 4m ago
  • 0xb4a1…6d8f BUY Yes $5.00 7m ago
  • 0xcd35…4b80 BUY No $5.04 7m ago
  • 0xafd9…e975 BUY Yes $2.00 11m ago
  • 0x282b…2b61 BUY Yes $2.00 11m ago
  • 0x0643…18c6 BUY No $5.04 12m ago
  • 0xaf9b…4f98 BUY Yes $2.00 13m ago
  • 0xfa13…e609 BUY No $2.01 15m ago
  • 0x8f0f…8eb2 BUY No $5.04 17m ago
  • 0xb998…d5c9 BUY Yes $2.00 24m ago
  • 0xd419…824e BUY No $2.01 24m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $31.71 25m ago
  • 0xe7ec…9dda SELL Yes $92.50 25m ago
  • 0x5fcf…d3e5 BUY Yes $2.00 25m ago
  • 0x2149…de70 BUY No $2.01 25m ago
  • 0xe7ec…9dda SELL Yes $62.93 25m ago
  • 0x83e7…d421 BUY No $2.01 28m ago
  • 0x8ed3…a09b BUY Yes $2.00 39m ago
  • 0x3bb0…9441 BUY No $10.11 40m ago
  • 0x21d7…3924 BUY No $2.01 42m ago
  • 0x5bbb…64d8 BUY No $2.01 47m ago
  • 0xc66c…c272 BUY Yes $1.00 55m ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 SELL Yes $2.59 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0x7fb2…cb9a BUY Yes $100.00 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xa1c6…bb70 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago
  • 0xada0…8e34 BUY Yes $2.22 1h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Comments

adonpoli 3h ago

They give permission and yes people are still buying eom

0gob 3h ago

may or may not

nameowste 4h ago

Insurance companies cutting off ships still in the Red Sea as we speak

88blitzcrank 7h ago

Add more dates if possible like Aug 8 and 15 tyvm

Relaccsed 13h ago

They’ll be closing it fully soon

nameowste 13h ago

Yemen’s Houthis say they carried out missile and drone strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea after declaring a maritime embargo on the kingdom. In a statement posted, the Houthis said that they “carried out a qualitative military operation targeting two Saudi oil tankers that violated the blockade”, naming the vessels as the Encelia and the Layla. As we reported earlier, the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations organisation said that it had received reports of a tanker being struck 70 nautical miles (130km) from Saudi Arabia’s town of Al Shuqaiq.

DontTrustMe 14h ago

The Banana strait is more open than ever. Free trade carries on. Capitalism is so incredibly beautiful. 🥹

RajahSingh 15h ago

IRGC-BACKED HOUTHIS CLAIM A MISSILE AND DRONE ATTACK ON SAUDI OIL TANKERS ENCELIA AND LAYLA IN THE RED SEA, CAUSING MAJOR FIRES.

johnnyA 15h ago

ship just went boom

Spirit-LT 15h ago

Bab Al-Mandab Strait is officially closed! The Houthi controlled Yemeni Armed Forces have announced a major military operation targeting two Saudi oil tankers, ENCELIA and LAYLA, alleging that both vessels violated the maritime restrictions imposed by Yemen's Armed Forces. According to the statement, the operation was carried out using multiple ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and one-way attack drones. The statement did not immediately provide details on the extent of the damage or the condition of the vessels.

NoSteinNoGate 6h ago

Not how it works, read the rules

hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 22

Houthi ISIS terrorists have threatened to target Saudi Arabia ships but not yet other countries. Even if they follow through that is likely more than 10 ships that would pass in. Also 3 more days until July is free bond N.

D33pCynic Jul 22

what the fuck are you on about? ISIS are a US asset. Houthis are aligned with Iran, retard.

bonebot Jul 21

houthis talk a lotta shit but i don't think they got hands to close it to less than 10 for a 7dma

UmaSucksBalls 10h ago

This aged well

DontTrustMe Jul 21

Best guess is likely no. Lowest recorded value in recent years is 25.1. It happened when Houthis were targeting commercial vessels using very loose criteria. They don't control the strait anyway and probably can't afford to piss off every major world power.

Spirit-LT Jul 21

The Houthis prevented four Saudi oil tankers carrying around 5 million barrels of crude from departing today.

NOIZYUV Jul 21

Went up to 6 ships

Spirit-LT Jul 21

trump confirmed. TRUMP ON HOUTHI BLOCKADE: WE'LL JUST HAVE TO TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS

henos Jul 22

owari da o7

NOIZYUV Jul 21

Bloomberg just reporting that a Chinese oil tanker u-turned in the Red Sea after the Houthi attack threat

GollumGekko Jul 21

slam it

NOIZYUV Jul 21

Yemeni Houthis have warned shipping firms to avoid loading or discharging at Saudi ports

Shallushka Jul 21

Oil shut be up much more given the current events...

Son28 Jul 20

Houthi has blocked the bab. Keep dumping notards. Hit my limit buy orders

Anon2Anon Jul 21

Bruh bruh. Read the statement, blocade just saudi. Full closure is being saved for Iranian infrastructure targeting

SIMOMEGA Jul 21

well thank you for helping our side

AmericaOnly Jul 20

Until houthis HIT a ship this + oil will not react imo

nameowste Jul 20

Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, threatening to exacerbate the oil supply disruption triggered by Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff Jul 20

The Yemeni Armed Forces announce the prohibition of maritime navigation by the criminal Saudi enemy under the principle of "blockade for blockade." This decision enters into force from the moment this statement is issued.

0x09d2808f2bb35f98CEE9D106997b5F04A910A3aC-1758807239307 Jul 20

Things are heating up

BbyKiruaa Jul 19

Why this didnt Sky rocket yes

0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff Jul 19

there's doubts about the Houthi's willingness/capacity to deliver and also how long it might take. I think the current prices are probably fair.

BbyKiruaa Jul 19

I see thanks

0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff Jul 19

I reckon it will jump as soon as a boat gets touched

johnnyA Jul 18

Iranian media is saying that the US targeted power plants, which was their red line for having the Houthis close baba ganoush

Son28 Jul 18

BREAKING: A source close to Iran's Ghalibaf says Yemen has begun blocking the Bab el-Mandab Strait, with initial warnings issued to passing ships in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandab. He says, in the past 48 hours, two Iranian strikes on two ships off Oman's coast, additional warning shots, and one ship seized have been carried out, and a new formation has been established on the opposite side of Bab el-Mandab. The decision will be made at "zero hour."

tetrose Jul 17

Babel Man Boob

Son28 Jul 17

The US has just struck a key Iranian road bridge connecting Bandar Abbas to other cities inland, dropping it into the Shur River. The strike has killed at least 2 people, injured 4, and caused power outages in the area.

Son28 Jul 17

Hormuz letter is the source of this news.

Son28 Jul 16

IRAN BREAKING Iran has directly instructed the Houthis to fully close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, with the Houthis having completed all operational preparations including deploying missiles and drones near the Strait, and are waiting for US strikes on Iranian power infrastructure to carry it out, per Reuters citing two senior Iranian sources.

SIMOMEGA Jul 17

well i dont understand why September or later isnt much higher with this news then

Son28 Jul 18

Still cheap. Im buying more

adonpoli Jul 16

New trader pump another market

adonpoli Jul 16

(this is old news because this exact instruction was given to houthis since war started so reuters just headline farming here)

PolyPlayerMADMAN Jul 16

Yes but Trump said next week will be another ultimatum, depends if he gonna taco

adonpoli Jul 16

he will as always Iran start to make some concession

ShockkMagnet Jul 14

Its closing earlier than expected bois

NOIZYUV Jul 13

Reports of an attack on Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia

hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 9

Iran would be economic terrorist if they dual shut off strait. But at least the good side is there would be a new market similar in Hormuz returning to normal.

Son28 Jul 9

They will. Iran will follow through. Its the only chance they have to bring down the west

Son28 Jul 9

BREAKING: Iran says if the US attacks again, it would withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, completely change its nuclear doctrine, and fully close both the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz, per an Iranian Parliament National Security Commission spokesperson.

AmericaOnly Jul 3

More dates please!!

AmericaOnly Jun 30

Can we get Oct through 2027?? More dates

pink.impala Jun 13

EZ!

NoSteinNoGate Jun 10

Guys June 15 can not resolve YES, 70 ships already passed

RajahSingh Jun 8

“From the Strait of Hormuz to Bab al-Mandab, and from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, a new security belt of the resistance will be formed,” IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani said in a message on Monday.

RajahSingh Jun 8

Grok: only a small handful (likely 2–5, or under 5% of the total) [of ships the Houthis attacked in 2023 and 2024] had clear, direct Israeli ownership, operation, or flag connections. The overwhelming majority of ships attacked by the Houthis had no actual Israeli links at all.

RajahSingh Jun 8

Jun 8, 2026 (Bloomberg) –The Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group that controls much of Yemen, declared a ban on Israeli ships in the Red Sea, threatening a key bypass route to the Strait of Hormuz. “We declare a complete and total ban on Israeli maritime navigation,” the group said Monday in a statement. “We consider all enemy movements to be legitimate military targets for our armed forces.”