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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
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Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+
$354 Vol.
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12%
$438 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%
$332 Vol.
4%
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8%
$1,832 Vol.
5%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%
$1,725 Vol.
28%
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%
$3,659 Vol.
32%
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <2%
$1,976 Vol.
14%
3%
Lula da Silva <2%
$3,209 Vol.
20%
7%
Lula da Silva 2-4%
$278 Vol.
3%
2%
Lula da Silva 4-6%
$250 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 6-8%
$469 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 8-10%
$100 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva 10-12%
$262 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+
$100 Vol.
<1%
Rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the tot... The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Oct 19, 2026, 8:35 PM ET
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