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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $990 NO
    LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x6e8c…e730
  • $1,448 YES
    LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x6ea6…1f8d
  • $84,117 NO
    Ethereum Up or Down 0x6ebf…57e9
  • $17 NO
    LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x7205…9bdb
  • $45 YES
    NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0x721f…d438
  • $2,126 NO
    Solana Up or Down - August 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET 0x7238…0c94
  • $35,700 NO
    Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x7251…44f1
  • $303 YES
    Solana above $200? 0x726b…7d4e
  • $9 YES
    Ethereum Up or Down 0x7284…b5aa
  • $35 NO
    BNB Up or Down - August 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET 0x729e…ee07
  • $50 YES
    Solana above $200? 0x72b7…2664
  • $10 NO
    Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x72d0…5ec0
  • $137 NO
    XRP Up or Down - August 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET 0x72ea…971d
  • $71 YES
    Solana Up or Down - August 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET 0x7303…cf7a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $345.82M
24h volume $29.45M

Fed

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0%
25 bps decrease 1% 3 more
$33.9MVol. 16 sept fomc

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 85%
1 (25 bps) 10% 11 more
$48.6MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed rate hike in 2026?

47%

Chance

Yes47¢ No54¢
$7.5MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 54%
1 (25 bps) 21% 4 more
$191.0KVol. 1 jan Fed

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 2%
25 bps decrease 4% 3 more
$646.6KVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 0%
June Meeting 0% 3 more
$2.3MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Cut–Pause–Pause 0%
Cut–Pause–Cut 0% 7 more
$709.9KVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Cut–Pause–Pause 0%
Cut–Pause–Cut 0% 7 more
$744.0KVol. 16 sept Fed

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1%
25 bps decrease 7% 3 more
$154.4KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 0%
March Meeting 0% 6 more
$3.1MVol. 17 jun Jerome Powell

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

2.25% 0%
2.5% 1% 13 more
$6.8MVol. 9 dec Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.0% 3%
↑ 5.5% 3% 19 more
$1.8MVol. 31 dec Jerome Powell

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

6%

Chance

Yes6¢ No94¢
$137.7KVol. 31 dec Business

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

December 31, 2026 5%
June 30, 2027 12%
$19.0KVol. 1 jan Fed

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

December 31, 2026 6%
June 30, 2026 0%
$318.7KVol. 31 dec Fed

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

0 17%
1 19% 3 more
$6.8KVol. 10 dec Fed

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

0 19%
1 20% 3 more
$8.3KVol. 28 jan Fed

Fed Decision in January?

50+ bps decrease 6%
25 bps decrease 14% 3 more
$34.0KVol. 28 jan Fed

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

September 30 2%
October 31 4% 2 more
$4.7KVol. 1 jan Fed

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

2%

Chance

Yes2¢ No98¢
$5.6KVol. 31 dec Fed Rates