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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
$2,060,929 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
Kazem Gharibabadi
$62,556 Vol.
52%
7%
Abbas Araghchi
$26,762 Vol.
42%
10%
Steve Witkoff
$175,227 Vol.
40%
6%
Jared Kushner
$107,084 Vol.
39%
6%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$192,357 Vol.
35%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$141,565 Vol.
26%
3%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$69,048 Vol.
24%
J.D. Vance
$103,179 Vol.
21%
2%
Nick Stewart
$58,489 Vol.
21%
5%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$82,169 Vol.
16%
Rafael Grossi
$86,734 Vol.
15%
3%
Ishaq Dar
$95,498 Vol.
14%
1%
Marco Rubio
$65,500 Vol.
11%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$85,041 Vol.
9%
2%
Newt Gingrich
$4,090 Vol.
6%
Donald Trump
$82,967 Vol.
5%
1%
Pete Hegseth
$30,036 Vol.
5%
Ahmad Vahidi
$43,486 Vol.
4%
Elon Musk
$6,561 Vol.
4%
1%
Melania Trump
$1,153 Vol.
4%
Esmail Qaani
$20,742 Vol.
3%
Mohammed bin Salman
$40,372 Vol.
2%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$31,875 Vol.
2%
Palmer Luckey
$3,416 Vol.
2%
Jared Kushner
$214,991 Vol.
100%
60%
Steve Witkoff
$68,992 Vol.
100%
63%
Abbas Araghchi
$45,618 Vol.
100%
66%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$115,419 Vol.
100%
15%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or material... This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
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