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Kevin Warsh predictions & odds

Fed Decision in October?

No change

94%

Yes94%No7%

25 bps increase

6%

Yes6%No95%

$57M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

72%

Yes72%No28%

No change

24%

Yes24%No77%

$4M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change

68%

Yes68%No33%

25 bps increase

29%

Yes29%No71%

$888K Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

74%

chance

Yes

No

$991K Vol.