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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in October?

No change

88%

Yes88%No13%

25 bps increase

13%

Yes13%No88%

$54M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 22

94%

Yes94%No6%

October 24

88%

Yes88%No13%

$21M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 31, 2027

49%

Yes49%No52%

March 31, 2027

25%

Yes25%No76%

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

72%

Yes72%No28%

November 30, 2027

68%

Yes68%No33%

$9M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

55%

Yes55%No46%

December 31

33%

Yes33%No67%

$42M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change

60%

Yes60%No40%

25 bps increase

38%

Yes38%No63%

$793K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

No

$75M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

72%

chance

Yes

No

$983K Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

79%

Yes79%No22%

No change

19%

Yes19%No82%

$4M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027

92%

Yes92%No8%

US

5%

Yes5%No95%

$4M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$28M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

December 31

78%

Yes78%No22%

November 30

73%

Yes73%No28%

$430K Vol.

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

December 31

59%

Yes59%No41%

November 30

30%

Yes30%No70%

$680K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 31

30%

Yes30%No70%

November 30

23%

Yes23%No78%

$3M Vol.

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