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U.S. x Iran predictions & odds

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

68%

Yes68%No33%

December 31

35%

Yes35%No65%

$50M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

12%

chance

Yes

No

$79M Vol.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

December 31

80%

Yes80%No21%

November 30

56%

Yes56%No45%

$322K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 2026

39%

Yes39%No61%

November 30, 2026

17%

Yes17%No84%

$2M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

10%

Yes10%No91%

November 30

2%

Yes2%No98%

$21M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

35%

Yes35%No66%

November 30

16%

Yes16%No85%

$4M Vol.