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Fed Decision in October?

Fed Vol $316,880 50 traders

50+ bps decrease2%
25 bps decrease9%
25 bps increase32%
No change56%
$316,880 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
2% ▼ 2
25 bps decrease
9% ▼ 2
No change
56% ▼ 6
25 bps increase
32% ▲ 5
50+ bps increase
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x2663…a70e SELL Yes $15.50 10m ago
  • 0x2b73…174e SELL Yes $171.12 10m ago
  • 0xf114…8003 SELL Yes $2.30 50m ago
  • 0x0d5b…75c5 BUY Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0x0d5b…75c5 BUY Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0x40c5…5cba BUY Yes $2.30 1h ago
  • 0x29aa…dd84 BUY Yes $5.04 5h ago
  • 0xb22a…1479 SELL Yes $28.00 5h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $30.80 6h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $269.11 6h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $5.13 6h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $11.40 6h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $11.40 6h ago
  • 0x728c…8c7d SELL Yes $662.33 6h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $31.35 6h ago
  • 0x5533…51ba SELL Yes $1.42 6h ago
  • 0x8031…c84c BUY Yes $2.90 6h ago
  • 0xb687…aee5 SELL Yes $72.50 6h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $29.34 6h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $73.09 6h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $29.07 6h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $48.31 6h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $29.31 6h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $27.40 6h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $12.60 6h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $4.20 6h ago
  • 0x5284…27f5 SELL No $151.94 6h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $78.73 6h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $29.73 6h ago
  • 0xaa9f…0df3 BUY No $41.00 6h ago
  • 0x02ce…43cd SELL Yes $29.50 10h ago
  • 0x46b1…428c BUY Yes $2.00 10h ago
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL No $18.20 11h ago
  • 0x2b73…174e BUY Yes $28.83 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $20.08 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $27.43 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $6.99 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $25.49 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $11.36 11h ago
  • 0xe134…b4a7 BUY No $7.38 11h ago

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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