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Iran leadership change by...?

Politics Vol $20,268,807 405 traders

April 300%
June 300%
May 310%
December 3126%
$20,268,807 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

10
Chance
September 30
17%
July 31
5% ▲ 1
June 30, 2027
41% ▲ 3
August 31
12% ▲ 3
March 13 Resolved
0%
March 31 Resolved
0%
April 30 Resolved
0% ▼ 1
December 31
26%
May 31 Resolved
0% ▼ 1
June 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x2c2b…e55d BUY No $273.64 22m ago
  • 0x2c2b…e55d BUY No $283.80 23m ago
  • 0xe64a…5951 BUY Yes $3.00 1h ago
  • 0xe64a…5951 SELL Yes $2.20 1h ago
  • 0x3314…a8c7 BUY No $100.00 1h ago
  • 0x81f0…8b09 SELL No $2.98 1h ago
  • 0x81f0…8b09 SELL No $2.88 1h ago
  • 0x0afc…d99c SELL No $0.73 2h ago
  • 0x0010…eb26 BUY No $804.33 2h ago
  • 0xad65…8c6b SELL Yes $2.29 2h ago
  • 0x4f1f…f5ea SELL No $19.62 3h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 BUY No $4.69 3h ago
  • 0x793d…8720 BUY Yes $21.57 3h ago
  • 0x4bcd…bbd9 BUY Yes $18.60 3h ago
  • 0xcaab…24dd BUY No $187.60 3h ago
  • 0x4bcd…bbd9 BUY Yes $19.20 3h ago
  • 0xd358…cfbd BUY No $705.81 3h ago
  • 0x5de7…540c BUY No $93.70 3h ago
  • 0x5de7…540c BUY No $93.70 3h ago
  • 0xe562…2494 BUY No $100.00 3h ago
  • 0x6d02…6255 BUY No $187.20 3h ago
  • 0x9dfb…e887 BUY No $131.16 3h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $0.66 4h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $13.40 4h ago
  • 0x4bcd…bbd9 BUY Yes $12.80 4h ago
  • 0x4bcd…bbd9 BUY Yes $13.86 4h ago
  • 0x4bcd…bbd9 BUY Yes $37.20 4h ago
  • 0x290d…dc40 BUY No $178.00 4h ago
  • 0x4376…a268 BUY No $21.23 4h ago
  • 0xd7f1…73cd BUY Yes $144.00 4h ago
  • 0x2108…d3dd SELL No $34.83 5h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $106.25 5h ago
  • 0xd7f1…73cd BUY Yes $2.20 5h ago
  • 0x0739…aba8 SELL No $3.00 6h ago
  • 0x02e1…c7ea BUY No $10.73 8h ago
  • 0x81f0…8b09 BUY No $2.98 12h ago
  • 0xc0c2…b14d BUY No $1.09 12h ago
  • 0x0787…0ca3 BUY No $18.00 12h ago
  • 0xad52…11ac BUY Yes $108.20 12h ago
  • 0x5344…7dc1 BUY Yes $3.50 13h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

Treedud25 22h ago

Already over

PMTraderAdam Jul 22

In the city, 'member used to drive a Yukon

GollumGekko Jul 19

the dead cannot die

Laurenman Jul 20

Fact.

Zubumafu Jul 19

He is likely dead, and if not, he will get assassinated, Trump is sick of him

NoSteinNoGate Jul 19

Can a dead person be a de facto leader? What would Saul Kripke think of this?

Zubumafu Jul 19

They will keep him as Zombie leader for the next 2-3 months and then replace him

NOIZYUV Jul 19

The Saudi channel Al-Hadath claims, citing an Israeli security source: "Mojtaba Khamenei is not in Iran."

JuicyPusy Jul 7

Yall retarded? He went to his father's funeral yesterday.

NOIZYUV Jul 8

As a ghost maybe

0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051 Jul 7

I don't understand why the scandalous lack of any proof that Mojtaba is alive isn't being used as a major weapon against the regime.

NOIZYUV Jun 30

He's dead and it's only a matter of time until it becomes known

Zubumafu Jul 3

Yup, though it won't happen on July, they have to finish this war face, the change will be a month or two after the negotiations (and war) ends

NOIZYUV Jul 3

Yeah I probably made a mistake buying for July

Zubumafu Jul 5

You did, that's for sure, it will take a few months at the very least until they admit that he is dead

NOIZYUV Jul 5

Yeah bro, I placed an order for june 2027

Zubumafu Jul 8

Yeah that one is free money, just sucks that it's going to be a while until we receive it

Mission3 Jun 29

Leadership not gonna change by end of year

hyper-liquid-xyz Jun 28

2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮

Isekai Jun 19

Moj safe again

Zubumafu Jun 19

He is dead

JuicyPusy Jun 17

His father's burial and funeral is scheduled for next week, and Mojtaba will be leading the burial prayer at holy shrine where his father will be buried. The regime wouldn't have had scheduled a burial for the previous supreme leader if his son (and the new leader) wasn't going to attend it.

.xeravio Jun 16

where is drop guys?

Zubumafu Jun 13

Yes in insanely underpriced

abdoohl May 26

15 years left tic-toc

Inchoroi May 28

Didn;t you have another account seething about Israel in all the comments? You are annoying as shit. I don’t even care about Israel but you are a butthurt third worlder and it shows.

NOIZYUV Jul 4

Or he invaded some European country

abdoohl May 26

Iran’s leader, Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, in a statement: The hands of time will not turn back. Regionsl nations & lands will no longer act as shields for US bases. Not only will America lack a safe haven for its mischief & military bases in the region, but its former status is fading day by day. The shaky Zionist regime & the cancerous tumor of ‘Israel’ is approaching its final days. By God's grace, and exactly as predicted 10 years ago by the great Leader, ‘Israel’ will not survive to see the 25-year mark from that date.

tfuladloomt May 22

no more changes this year

Mikelious May 20

You don't even know if he's alive how can anyone bet on this?

Isekai May 19

Moj Safu

SqMoneyHunter May 17

He's defiantly dead. This is IRGC coup which they using his name to run the country. Polymarket shouldn't resolve any date until further information and clarity. He's not leading the country not in May nor March

QsLittleNigg3r May 22

you can't prove it unfortunately

TheRealWarMonger May 14

Momo stay strong

0x64AA3F2869DE45F6121f6760288432D19681E774-1763311387317 May 7

Diplomatic signals accelerated recently.

Jesus.Loves.Us May 2

Of course it will change! No other way! As God commanded!

Antigen88 Apr 30

Pretty wild considering he’s dead or hasn’t been seen publicly.

dakrside1 May 1

IRGC push this guys to be supreme leader after he heavily injured , and about to die, IRGC control the military now they have a puppet ayatollah, no reason to announce to world even puppet is dead so they dont have to pick another that might threaten IRGC total power

abdoohl Apr 30

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Islamic Iran, with practical gratitude for the blessing of managing the Strait of Hormuz, will secure the Persian Gulf region and remove the enemy's hostile abuses from this waterway. The legal rules and the new management of the Strait of Hormuz will bring comfort and progress for the benefit of all the nations of the region, and its economic blessings will bring joy to the hearts of the people, God willing, even if the disbelievers dislike it.

abdoohl Apr 30

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: By the power and might of God, the bright future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without America and in the service of the progress, comfort, and welfare of its peoples. We are "fellow destinies" with our neighbors in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and foreigners who maliciously covet from thousands of kilometers away have no place there except at the bottom of its waters. This chain of victories, achieved by the grace of God and through the policies of resistance and the strategy of a strong Iran, will mark the dawn of a new regional and global order.

abdoohl Apr 30

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: The presence of American foreigners and their nesting and establishment in the lands of the Persian Gulf is the most important cause of insecurity in the region. The fragile American bases do not have the capacity to ensure their own security, let alone hope to provide security for the dependents and America-worshippers of the region.

abdoohl Apr 30

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: The peoples of the Persian Gulf region, who for many years had become accustomed to the silence and submission of their rulers in the face of bullies and aggressors, have witnessed in the past sixty days the beautiful manifestations of firmness, vigilance, and the heroic struggle of the naval forces of the Army and the IRGC. They saw the zeal and bravery of the people and youth of the southern region of dear Iran in rejecting foreign domination.

abdoohl Apr 30

In a few moments, Iran’s Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, will broadcast a message via IRIB on the occasion of National Persian Gulf Day. It will be likely a written message, like the previous ones.

jayames1990 Apr 29

Only a matter of time: [link removed]

jayames1990 Apr 29

Only a matter of time:

porbee Apr 29

Whenever Iran regime changes I will change my underwear

zxcolololo Apr 27

Below 3%, the dream is cheap but the exit is the hard part. Market is treating YES like a scratch-off: YES 1.7%, book $1.4k.

0x798F98dC26CccBb7061E02F43De4E55f6362d7d3-1772125864204 Apr 27

They released a wall of martyrs and it has Mojatba on it!! They are showing he's dead.

Crypto1Mark Apr 26

Interesting! [link removed]

0x798F98dC26CccBb7061E02F43De4E55f6362d7d3-1772125864204 Apr 27

Exactly, he's dead. Also its been a change to a military government instead of religious.

0x798F98dC26CccBb7061E02F43De4E55f6362d7d3-1772125864204 Apr 25

Hes brain dead or actually dead. The IRGC put a gun to the head of the clerics to elect Mojtaba because they can run the government. it's not run by the IRGC not the Clerics, a quiet coup but a coup. Ghalibaf's post come from California, he doesn't post for himself. Except for a couple of fake posts for Mojtaba no one has seen or heard of him.

Kentastrof1 Apr 26

This market is more if there will come out a statement acknowledging him dead or unfit, from Iran.. They would never tell the world he's dead if he's dead. They will play this forever...

bonk3rs Apr 24

On X today, many users (including opposition accounts) bluntly claim “Mojtaba is already dead” or “brain dead,” calling the entire leadership a “charade” or “1984-style fiction” to maintain continuity. Some tie Ghalibaf’s post directly to this, suggesting it’s damage control or an attempt to project unity while the IRGC runs things behind the scenes.

AyatollahDollar Apr 24

Even if he's gone, you won't know about it before the whole thing's over lol. Good luck Yessisters

latenightdegen Apr 24

there are recent reports confirming "or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran" has already been happening. he doesn't need to die, or be announced dead

AyatollahDollar Apr 25

Random "reports" or speculations from various no-names aren't relevant and won't resolve this market

latenightdegen Apr 25

I imagine time will expire on the market, 3 days will expire, automatic resolution proposal comes in, then the dispute, and it will end up in a UMA vote

AyatollahDollar Apr 25

Yes, UMA will vote NO, clearly. Just like it resolved on March 31.

0xbt Apr 24

Seems like he may have passed away. [link removed]