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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Iran Vol $2,753,860 55 traders

July 22100%
July 2573%
July 3159%
July 20100%
$2,753,860 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

10
Chance
July 18 Resolved
100%
July 20
>99%
July 22
>99% ▲ 5
July 25
73% ▼ 7
July 31
59% ▼ 11
August 15
42% ▼ 10
August 31
33% ▼ 10
July 23
98%
July 24
86%
July 26
64%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x12f7…b645 BUY No $28.00 5m ago
  • 0x12f7…b645 SELL Yes $58.98 5m ago
  • 0x12f7…b645 SELL Yes $72.00 5m ago
  • 0xbf4d…33ed BUY Yes $292.00 6m ago
  • 0xe743…e7d7 BUY Yes $5.00 6m ago
  • 0x8f9b…6c25 BUY No $49.00 6m ago
  • 0x79df…0a76 SELL No $113.90 7m ago
  • 0x5344…7dc1 SELL No $5.13 7m ago
  • 0xe1b7…a9df BUY No $1.00 8m ago
  • 0xe1b7…a9df BUY No $1.00 8m ago
  • 0xdcec…d169 BUY Yes $2.52 9m ago
  • 0xdaa6…3e62 BUY No $70.17 9m ago
  • 0xe7ab…b9a4 SELL No $162.00 10m ago
  • 0x1ccf…99ec SELL Yes $4.56 11m ago
  • 0xc15b…38af BUY Yes $9047.40 11m ago
  • 0xe7ab…b9a4 SELL No $2.49 11m ago
  • 0xe7e9…99e6 SELL Yes $4.49 11m ago
  • 0xbf4d…33ed BUY Yes $7.10 11m ago
  • 0x3554…d825 BUY No $171.00 12m ago
  • 0xdcec…d169 BUY Yes $2.52 14m ago
  • 0xedc0…0615 BUY No $2.00 15m ago
  • 0x2ba1…ab17 BUY No $1.00 15m ago
  • 0x2f34…5d9f BUY Yes $40.00 17m ago
  • 0xf3fa…7be3 BUY No $16.80 18m ago
  • 0x4a7c…1dc7 BUY No $100.00 18m ago
  • 0x2f34…5d9f BUY No $100.00 19m ago
  • 0x7302…828a BUY No $16.20 19m ago
  • 0x2f34…5d9f SELL No $141.24 20m ago
  • 0xfddf…6cc3 BUY Yes $27.05 21m ago
  • 0x0851…e119 BUY No $5.88 21m ago
  • 0xd744…9f71 BUY No $38.57 22m ago
  • 0xdcbb…cd20 SELL No $0.86 23m ago
  • 0xdcbb…cd20 SELL No $42.28 23m ago
  • 0x2589…bb9c BUY No $5.90 24m ago
  • 0x2589…bb9c BUY No $10.00 24m ago
  • 0xd678…96a7 BUY Yes $25.00 24m ago
  • 0x0a34…42ce BUY Yes $34.28 26m ago
  • 0x3b61…2fd2 SELL Yes $593.81 27m ago
  • 0xf3fa…7be3 BUY No $57.12 27m ago
  • 0x2b62…5203 BUY No $600.00 28m ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Comments

0xd65c9B6334f7E7B2f08f58e0722Cc23C37E529aa-1769532406918 56m ago

bomb shelters are opening all around israel

Hummershark 2h ago

i am also count on Saturday early morning

0xd65c9B6334f7E7B2f08f58e0722Cc23C37E529aa-1769532406918 3h ago

The attack will happen between thursday/friday or friday/saturday

ArieLethal 3h ago

today🤫 Am Yisrael Chai🇮🇱💪

ArieLethal 5h ago

There are new dates.

Relaccsed 12h ago

Muhahaha

ArieLethal 14h ago

Now an Israeli-American attack

0x6E598171FAB193DdCDb311C549f8335cb1CbfaAE-1769863000756 15h ago

alarms in israel

0x01C71Aa8916B94fA9C5E7f31ccebEB5A066D5764-1770647794932 16h ago

🔴 Peak readiness at Air Force bases and Home Front Command - "Waiting for green light from the US".

0x01C71Aa8916B94fA9C5E7f31ccebEB5A066D5764-1770647794932 16h ago

🔴 Security source: "The chance of renewed firing at Israel is increasing. The public is asked to be prepared for any announcement from the Home Front Command."

yungsoleimani 20h ago

yopp

namibia 21h ago

surely not

Imo7o 23h ago

As much as I would like the IRGC to do it, i don’t think it is going to happen

ArieLethal 22h ago

Your loss

ArieLethal Jul 22

Tomorrow🤫

0x6E598171FAB193DdCDb311C549f8335cb1CbfaAE-1769863000756 Jul 21

Israel council was hit

LShibalba Jul 22

What?

D33pCynic Jul 20

Stupid rules on this one, according to Israel they shot down every missile ever launched at them and the videos we saw of damage in Tel Aviv are AI fakes.

BlindAndDeaf Jul 20

Israel never claimed such thing + real damage have been shown on Israeli mainstream media

FazbearEntertaiment Jul 20

Only barely, most hit open areas

D33pCynic Jul 21

Yes, i wasnt being hyperbolic to make a point at all, Israel has been entirely transparent about Iranian missile strikes during this war

Incognitoo Jul 19

why isn’t the 18th of July market resolved?

ArieLethal Jul 18

Go to the market, Israel, close the sky until. Buy yes, and you will profit.

ArieLethal Jul 18

Israel is not in a ceasefire at all if Iran