NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Outcomes
4Recent trades
40- 0x6b25…2f9f BUY No $5.00 1h ago
- 0x4542…2637 BUY Yes $10.00 4h ago
- 0xb295…4ee4 BUY Yes $214.91 6h ago
- 0x0013…3c30 SELL Yes $1.38 17h ago
- 0x4542…2637 BUY No $10.00 21h ago
- 0x4204…d93d BUY No $7.99 23h ago
- 0x60f1…f522 BUY No $25.00 Jul 22
- 0xc9b0…0fcd BUY Yes $12.00 Jul 22
- 0xc9b0…0fcd BUY Yes $15.00 Jul 22
- 0x81de…20d4 SELL Yes $47.77 Jul 22
- 0x5b63…11a4 SELL Yes $28.77 Jul 22
- 0x81de…20d4 BUY Yes $53.46 Jul 22
- 0xa667…ceb3 BUY No $4.10 Jul 22
- 0x81de…20d4 SELL Yes $46.20 Jul 22
- 0x81de…20d4 BUY Yes $53.46 Jul 22
- 0x81de…20d4 SELL Yes $46.85 Jul 21
- 0x92c0…9823 BUY No $1.00 Jul 21
- 0x81de…20d4 BUY Yes $49.50 Jul 21
- 0x2a1c…7791 BUY No $100.00 Jul 21
- 0xea79…e4b5 BUY No $86.30 Jul 21
- 0xc9b0…0fcd BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 21
- 0xf9e3…0526 BUY No $50.00 Jul 21
- 0xf9e3…0526 BUY No $50.00 Jul 21
- 0xc9b0…0fcd BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 21
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL Yes $4.96 Jul 21
- 0xddf5…90aa SELL No $311.23 Jul 1
- 0x92bb…1afb SELL Yes $0.36 Jul 1
- 0x0430…bb31 BUY Yes $5.00 Jun 30
- 0x1851…ae47 BUY Yes $2.29 Jun 30
- 0x6784…7565 SELL No $5.00 Jun 30
- 0x907d…20c4 SELL Yes $1.40 Jun 30
- 0x58fd…43a6 SELL Yes $3.50 Jun 30
- 0xfc75…8604 SELL Yes $22.13 Jun 30
- 0x05c7…4421 SELL No $18.95 Jun 30
- 0x145b…8f5c SELL No $3.05 Jun 30
- 0xc94e…55dc SELL No $3.04 Jun 30
- 0x560e…85f5 SELL No $2.97 Jun 30
- 0x243d…cd7f SELL No $2.97 Jun 30
- 0xc861…e376 SELL No $2.97 Jun 30
- 0x7122…c9e4 SELL No $2.96 Jun 30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Comments
polymarket perps, last few spots: 01kivwd2
Claude AI said if Russia were to nuke space, or even drop an intercontinental ballistic missile on Poland, this bet would not pay out unless NATO decided to actually fight instead of agreeing peace. Claude said the bet is very badly written and there are many scenarios in which it would not pay out. What is the view of people here?
The coming NATO summit in Ankara on 7-8 July 2026, will be decisive for the outcome of this bet. Peace now, or there will be a strike on Ukrainian manufacturing assets in NATO.
Russia published a potential strike list with addresses, titled “Branches of Ukrainian Companies in Europe”. It named 11 enterprises in cities including London, Munich, Riga, Vilnius, and Prague. A second list, “Foreign Enterprises Producing Components,” named 10 companies, some located in Madrid, Venice, and Haifa.
ok google, how to fight NATO without fuel?
Drone attack
You believe Russia has no fuel? The hits on Russian refineries are far too few for that.
Prediction markets price very low odds of direct NATO-Russia military clash amid nuclear deterrence on both sides.
Here is the thing. I think Russia with crush with Nato by the end of this year. Specifically they will fight for Odessa. Russia and Ukraine export a lot of Wheat and if they will take over Odessa and block the black sea. Africa amd some other country can starve to death. Maybe ive overexaggarated a bit but the fact is fact. If u look at the bigger pictire that will be the answer for America to gain controll on Middle east and patrol the Stream of Mallacas
A NATO–Russia clash might happen this year. Another factor is that the U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and Trump might be out of the picture by next year. If that happens, the U.S. could resume sending significant funding to Ukraine and impose stronger sanctions on Russia. Because of that, Russia may see this year as its best opportunity to act. If it wants to do something, it likely has to do it this year.
Russia closed rail crossing with NATO countries
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Latvian airspace on Monday, according to Latvia’s military, with air alerts subsequently lifted.
Does this affect your Polymarket position? Yes, this is the strongest market-relevant incident so far. It is much stronger than Galați, Constanța, Munich, or the French tanker case
so if "unknown men in green uniforms" will enter Estonia and engage with Estonian army, BUT Russia will not claim responsibility for it... will it qualify or not?
I doubt it would qualify, but the likely scenario is drone and missile attacks. Russia has already published the strike list. A list titled “Branches of Ukrainian Companies in Europe” named 11 enterprises in cities including London, Munich, Riga, Vilnius, and Prague. A second list, “Foreign Enterprises Producing Components,” named 10 companies, some located in Madrid, Venice, and Haifa.
now the whole world can see how karma and the law of boomerang work
This summer, Russia will carry out sabotage operations against the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Finland.
бредятина полнейшая
Russian TV propaganda is preparing the population for war with NATO. The narrative is that NATO countries are already part of the conflict because they produce weapons for Ukraine. Lately, there has been much more of this kind of propaganda than before. I expect at least an ultimatum from Putin to NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.
all bark no bite
It's not really propaganda though.
Estonian fighter shot down a UAV today. Was it Russian? If it was then this should be resolved as YES.
nah if it wasn't armed that doesn't seem to count
RUSSIA'S RYABKOV: RISKS OF DIRECT RUSSIA - NATO CLASH ARE INCREASING - TASS
Estonia has shot down a UAV that entered its territory for the first time, according to the Ministry of Defense.
Russia even stuck in Mala Tokmachka
This is true, Putin cannot win on the battlefield now, but Ukraine can only resist with EU support. Putin can attack EU to force they to stop support of Ukraine. EU is defenseless against Shahed attacks on infrastructure.
Why dump? Possibility of military clash is really low. Russia stuck in Ukraine,
If its YES i probably dont need money
The wallet that called the last black swan event is currently loading up on this move.
which wallet? what black swan?
This isn't a black swan event because NATO vs Russia military clash is a known unknown, rather than an unknown unknown. A black swan is something that isn't expected at all.
Top Yes holder is a mouthbreather... look at his rtard bets...he is just a rich gambler
I'm truly sorry to break it to you all
Someoone please add "December 31, 2026" and "March 31, 2027" with rewards. These are 100% when market prices in 20-30%.
Boguht again. YES! Its coming to Europe this winter.
I live in Galati, Romania, about 15 km from the area where 4,000 tons of LPG just caught fire, right next to an active conflict zone. Being this close, the situation feels extremely tense and unpredictable. From my perspective on the ground, things look like they could escalate at any moment. That’s why I’m positioned on Yes until December 31.
A full NATO and Russia clash feels unlikely, but with rising tensions, people keep speculating about a flashpoint that could ignite conflict sooner than anyone expects.
bugged
if yes then ww3, i bet on peace, optimism makes money
Makes money while u are down 71k is insane cope
What about the drones above airfields and military bases? When these Russian drones are shot down, will that qualify as a yes?
read the rules (no)
How would a false flag where everyone believes Russia attacked occurred be rated?
would it even matter anymore. A lost bet would be the smallest of your problems.
This is kind of ridiculous and too vaguely defined to be a worthwhile bet. According to the rules, if e.g. Russia shoots down a NATO non-munition drone anywhere, including Ukraine or the Black Sea, this marked resolves to "Yes".
Just bet on the other side dummy
BREAKING: NATO-RUSSIA CLASH RISK RADICALLY UNDERPRICED CRITICAL SIGNALS DETECTED: - NATO Article 4 consultations activated - Baltic airspace violations daily - US nuclear submarines positioned Baltic - Russia mobilizing Iskander missiles Kaliningrad Market missing REAL-TIME military escalation: High-urgency opportunity - institutional money entering soon.
Theres some unidentified sabotage drones over eastern european airports every single day. Russia is testing how far they can push it and eventually some military action is going to be taken.
Don’t make me tap the sign
Nothing ever happens..
Fuck yallxnuggas 🤣🙈
Various pizzerias nearby the Pentagon are reporting high and above average traffic. As of 1:34pm ET
It’s a thing! lol. They can tell when the pentagon workers are working on things late at night when the pizza shops report extremely high amounts of orders. Not a joke it is legit a thing, that how reporters used to be able to tell if a rumour of conflict was true back in the day
So another incident like shooting down drones in Poland will resolve the market to yes?
Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. - Doesn't that mean that it would qualify?
Poland maybe.
Only FUCKING MORON would bet yes…. Who in their right mind would bet on ww3 taking place.. Russia and the USA are scared of each other…. Don’t be a fucking loser and buy yes…. Be smart and buy NO. Preferably 500 shares at 91 cents!! 😜..
If you’re really smart don’t be scared to buy up to 96 cents !!