Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

appen already

go

it

imagine if it comes down to alaskan voters being too stupid to tell the two Dans apart.

Nate Silver thinks Dems take the House but GOP keeps Senate

correction: my bad, he's actually much more confident that Dems take the House than GOP takes Senate. He thinks the Senate is more of a toss up with a slight lead in odds towards GOP (basically exactly what this market currently has priced in.

for

I'm aware that the maps are harsh, but 57% in favour of the Republicans is pure insanity

I'm sure this would be 473849x more accurate if you could bet from the United States. I though this was a free country. Dosen't seem like it.

This might be a dumb heuristic, but I wonder if Zuck being at UFC 250 shows the Midterms won't be a huge Blue wave/Dem blowout. Given Zuck has internal access to some of the most relevant data (i.e. FB, IG etc.) about sentiment toward both parties & doesn't have an obligation to be visible alongside Trump/GOP it perhaps indicates he thinks its worthwhile to be on Trump/GOP's good side for the remainder of his term. Was trying to think of how to trade that if its true, and wonder if this market is the best to do it as Dems could still take House even without a blowout but this seems like more of a coin toss.

It proves that CEOs feel that in this command economy driven by fealty to the White House, cozying up to Trump is a necessary business decision. That is all it means.

Yeah but if its a blowout in the midterms then GOP loses control of congress & being seen with Trump at the UFC event (viewed by hundreds of millions) will then hurt him with the Dems & with broader public given Trump's approval is quite low now. He could still be in Trump's good graces by speaking to him privately or more subtle means as other business leaders do. Also, by that logic, why didn't Elon, Bezos or many other CEOs show up to the event?

Zuckerberg doesn’t care about the optics, and he probably has become more right-wing as Silicon Valley has gone that way. I didn’t see Elon protesting at an antifa rally. Does that mean by not showing up he now supports Antifa?

Not showing up to something is not the same as showing up. Not showing up is the default because theres obviously tons of political events and most people don't go to any of them. Zuckerberg absolutely cares about optics, he has a massive PR team. His company could be regulated by either political party . The fallout with Zuck for the 2016 election (cambridge analytica, russia collusion narratives etc) led to all kinds of global regulation and severely damaged his reputation.

Dems will take Ohio and Texas.

New - Senate poll - Texas 🔵 Talarico 45% 🔴 Paxton 38% PPP #B (🔵) - LV - 5/26 MAGA is donezo and Trump is historically unpopular. Dems flip both houses and Trump becomes lame duck president. It's over.

“It’s over.” Did it happen already?

Thank god, the faster we can erase that vile stain on our nation the better. What an absolute monster. The damage he's done to this country we will NEVER recover from. economically we're on the brink of collapse and wall street is covering it's ear and eyes refusing to see that AI is a bubble waiting to pop, our reputation with the world is destroyed. That disgusting traitor should have his vile name stricken from the earth. His entire family needs to pay for their crimes as well. Stop letting these people divide us!!! We can all see now, the mask is off. It's the Epstein class, and it's the rest of us... whose side are you on?

Buy the dip, Dems in 2026

If you look at the Seat-by-Seat map, it shows the Democrats holding 52 seats.

Opportunity Sharing: Buy 50, 51, 52, and 53 under "Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?", then buy Republican No here. There is currently a 13-point spread. Free money.

54 seats

54 seats or above would be lose

Those 13 points are the chances of GOP geting 54+ seats.

I don't think it is something really possible.

Believe in blue

Tell me you groom kids without telling me

Bro, you support Epstein’s best friend lmao

Bro, you support the Podestas and the Clintons(Epstein's best friend). Illegal immigration is one of the lead sources of human sex trafficking btw.

Yes we can ignore trump redacting a cool 69% of the files

clintons have less pics with epstein than trump

"For decades, these banks have treated your deposits like their personal piggy bank, paying you next to nothing while lending YOUR money out for massive profits and executive bonuses. Hands off the people’s money. Let Americans choose real competition and better returns. No more shielding Wall Street from the future. The banking elite’s days of rigging the system and debanking their political enemies are over. Innovation, freedom, and the American people will win." - Senator Bernie Moreno

“Jesse, what are you talking about”

All sources (predict/trad analysis/polls) are trending Dem since fall 2025 except poly and kalsh over the past month. All of this without the economic impact of the Iran war hitting the yet. Things will get far worse this summer and true crisis levels in the US by Fall. It will all get blamed on the trump regime and Republicans. The fascist propaganda machine will spend billions to try to lie it's way out of it, it won't work. The thing about fascist propaganda, it usually does not work twice in a row.

But Poly/Kash also got the 2024 presidential race right when that was non-consensus.

"Guys, the numbers look bad for us, pwease buy the Republican side :("

🤦‍♂️

🤡🤡

why the down of democrat? just because a desperate order from the republican side?

Because they are morons, the election is already like 50/50 chance of either winning if it happened right now, and polling will only get worse for Republicans over the next 6 months

I will happily collect, just like in 2024 when the Iowa poll drove down Trump's odds

Bahaha, with the new map favours republicans so you’re delusional if you think dems have a better chance at winning

you do know the difference between the house and the senate, right?

I voted against Trump to keep democrats out of office, but not because I'm a republican or even a left. I am a Bernie Bro, but I hate the democratic party.

Thanks. Because of clowns like you I laugh every day when I read the news from the USA! It must be less laughable for you but you vote for this leader-clown.

Hear me out, maybe vote in your primaries?

Rrrandom

Battle of urine and dog shit))

Well urine has healing properties

Битва говна и мочи

If trump keeps acting like a sperg, no one will take him seriously and will lose

Trump has stirred up such a mess that the Republicans' chances are slipping through their fingers.

Today, Cook Political Report moved 4 races, all towards Dems: Georgia and NC from Toss Up to Lean Dem, Ohio from Lean Repub to Toss Up and Nebraska(!) from Solid Repub to Likely Repub.

Republicans keep stepping on rakes day after day

Cook had Kamala at 303 votes

This guy @maskache2 is printing $1k per day with a weather trading bot and we are still gambling

Dems going parabolic now the Republicans are too scared to keep the price down

You really bet 26k shares on that? My god... Better give your money to poor people.