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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
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None
$93,926 Vol.
25%
2%
IA
$592,245 Vol.
16%
8%
IA, KS
$721,663 Vol.
16%
5%
IA, KS, ME
$17,978 Vol.
4%
KS
$12,665 Vol.
3%
2%
All 7
$49,980 Vol.
3%
3%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$13,947 Vol.
3%
IA, ME
$16,407 Vol.
3%
1%
IA, KS, TX
$6,799 Vol.
3%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$7,760 Vol.
3%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX
$12,917 Vol.
3%
IA, KS, ME, TX
$7,943 Vol.
3%
AK, IA, KS
$4,691 Vol.
2%
1%
IA, TX
$5,079 Vol.
2%
1%
IA, KS, OH
$6,603 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, TX
$4,244 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$4,018 Vol.
1%
ME
$7,125 Vol.
1%
KS, ME
$6,191 Vol.
1%
AK
$5,182 Vol.
1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,742 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, ME
$2,155 Vol.
1%
2%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$1,067 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA
$3,197 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH
$9,545 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX
$3,724 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI
$7,539 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX
$751 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$11,457 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, ME, OH, TX
$1,741 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH
$1,511 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$1,584 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI
$1,372 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX
$1,815 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME
$1,669 Vol.
<1%
3%
IA, ME, OH
$1,982 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI
$1,479 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI
$667 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI
$12,210 Vol.
<1%
KS, TX
$7,405 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX
$1,984 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, MI, TX
$1,791 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX
$1,543 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH
$3,937 Vol.
<1%
IA, OH, TX
$1,374 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, OH
$866 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, TX
$1,629 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, TX
$2,162 Vol.
<1%
KS, OH
$1,636 Vol.
<1%
TX
$8,037 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX
$1,739 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX
$1,916 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, OH
$1,546 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI
$1,919 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, OH
$1,788 Vol.
<1%
AK, OH
$1,365 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI
$1,711 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI
$892 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$1,968 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, OH, TX
$1,811 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, TX
$2,358 Vol.
<1%
ME, OH, TX
$996 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX
$2,922 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME
$1,468 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH
$5,346 Vol.
<1%
OH
$4,992 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,710 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH
$5,259 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, OH
$2,576 Vol.
<1%
MI, TX
$5,020 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI
$3,795 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH
$2,107 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH
$2,091 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI
$4,735 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX
$2,418 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX
$2,441 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH
$1,418 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX
$4,742 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, OH, TX
$1,808 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI
$2,260 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, TX
$2,562 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, MI, TX
$3,226 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS
$1,468 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME
$1,756 Vol.
<1%
ME, TX
$5,091 Vol.
<1%
MI, OH
$2,056 Vol.
<1%
OH, TX
$5,196 Vol.
<1%
MI
$5,604 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$5,286 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH
$1,852 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX
$2,367 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX
$8,346 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX
$7,065 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH
$1,911 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, OH, TX
$4,580 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, TX
$1,884 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, TX
$1,967 Vol.
<1%
KS, OH, TX
$2,257 Vol.
<1%
3%
AK, TX
$2,683 Vol.
<1%
IA, OH
$5,307 Vol.
<1%
ME, OH
$2,141 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX
$6,359 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX
$2,460 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,518 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$1,845 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$6,220 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI
$2,126 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX
$2,015 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX
$4,212 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI
$983 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, ME, MI, OH
$2,381 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX
$2,241 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, OH
$2,369 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI
$1,926 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, OH
$2,018 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, TX
$1,995 Vol.
<1%
AK, OH, TX
$2,310 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI
$2,305 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, OH
$2,309 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, OH
$2,687 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, TX
$3,980 Vol.
<1%
MI, OH, TX
$2,662 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A s... This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.
A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 26, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
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