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Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Main Election Vol $29,016,043 580 traders

Naftali Bennett7%
Benjamin Netanyahu38%
Amir Ohana0%
Yair Golan0%
$29,016,043 Vol. Main Election

Outcomes

28
Chance
Benjamin Netanyahu
38% ▲ 1
Naftali Bennett
7% ▼ 1
Yair Lapid
<1%
Gadi Eizenkot
49% ▼ 2
Benny Gantz
<1%
Avigdor Lieberman
3%
Yossi Cohen
<1%
Yair Golan
<1%
Itamar Ben Gvir
<1%
Gideon Sa’ar
<1%
Yariv Levin
<1%
Moshe Feiglin
<1%
Ayelet Shaked
<1%
Yoaz Hendel
<1%
Israel Katz
<1%
Nir Barkat
<1%
Amir Ohana
<1%
Gilad Erdan
<1%
Person G
0%
Person H
0%
Person I
0%
Person J
0%
Person K
0%
Person L
0%
Person M
0%
Person N
0%
Person O
0%
Other
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x8697…196d BUY No $4.98 1m ago
  • 0xec6e…29c5 SELL No $1.73 1m ago
  • 0xd39c…8d35 BUY No $1.18 4m ago
  • 0x6fb6…d761 BUY No $6.42 5m ago
  • 0xbff1…124e BUY No $7.87 11m ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 BUY No $1.04 17m ago
  • 0xda21…b401 BUY No $7.55 17m ago
  • 0x6acb…e2f7 SELL Yes $26.43 20m ago
  • 0xdbf3…b1b5 BUY No $6.99 26m ago
  • 0xadd4…f00e BUY Yes $1.00 27m ago
  • 0x17e0…2a64 BUY No $8.00 36m ago
  • 0xa297…6a6e SELL Yes $18.50 39m ago
  • 0xdd38…d121 SELL No $13.90 41m ago
  • 0x084e…195a BUY No $5.16 42m ago
  • 0xf8fd…268d SELL Yes $2.55 44m ago
  • 0x3ba0…fe86 BUY No $2.85 44m ago
  • 0x1b25…7be9 BUY No $5.48 45m ago
  • 0x67a4…a8f9 BUY Yes $10.00 47m ago
  • 0xf8fd…268d BUY Yes $2.58 48m ago
  • 0x999b…6436 BUY No $7.60 49m ago
  • 0x97c6…6587 SELL No $0.78 51m ago
  • 0x87e0…7000 BUY No $1.81 52m ago
  • 0x67bd…79ad BUY No $5.62 56m ago
  • 0x9abb…32d2 SELL No $12.74 1h ago
  • 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $0.82 1h ago
  • 0xc4dd…bf76 SELL No $229.27 1h ago
  • 0x458f…2cb0 BUY No $4.73 1h ago
  • 0x90d4…c7c8 SELL No $1.04 1h ago
  • 0x204e…795e BUY No $6.93 1h ago
  • 0x2af9…b93e BUY No $4.25 1h ago
  • 0x500a…c8e4 BUY No $50.00 1h ago
  • 0x3ce1…fac2 BUY No $5.83 1h ago
  • 0x7216…626f BUY Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0xeecb…ae7b BUY Yes $5.00 1h ago
  • 0xc517…c76e SELL No $5.98 1h ago
  • 0xdb59…00ab BUY No $7.86 1h ago
  • 0xddd3…355c SELL No $3.10 1h ago
  • 0xeecb…ae7b BUY No $17.00 1h ago
  • 0x6f2a…9551 BUY No $1.98 1h ago
  • 0x1668…0068 BUY No $10.00 1h ago

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

bunnyyyy 16h ago

Yolft

Shay1 18h ago

חברים אל תהיו טמבלים 50 אחוז לגדי? אין מספיק שמלאנים בכלל לעזור לו להגיע מעל 7 מנדטים וזה לא יקרה שוב השחיתות שתקום ממשלה של 9 מנדטים ברמאות… עד שביבי ימות/יפרוש הוא תמיד יבחר אלא ואחריו יבחרו בן גביר או פייגלין העולם ישרף לפני שתקום ממשלת שמאל כי שמאל יגרום ליהודים לעבור שואה נוספת ויגיד את זה כיום חג.

TheJewishHammer 18m ago

הכול תלוי אם גדי יילך עם הערבים. למרות זאת, המחיר לא שווה. אני קניתי גדי "לא". לאט לאט הוא יתחיל לרדת. הוא כבר פותח את הפה ומאבד תמיכה. לדעתי, זאת מערכת הבחירות האחרונה של ביבי. אסור לתת לשמאל לעלות ולהרוס את המדינה

Eyalyosef Jul 22

The market is mispricing this. Many Polymarket traders aren't even Israeli voters, so this isn't a reliable reflection of public opinion. Netanyahu's bloc also benefits from stronger long-term demographic trends, while many media polls have repeatedly underestimated him in past elections. The one pollster with a consistently better track record has been Shlomo Filber's NEXT DATA. I expect Netanyahu to win.

TheJewishHammer Jul 22

A lot of manipulation on this market.

ydxistheking 9h ago

Shlomo Filber? That Shlomo Filber under indictment in Netanyahus corruption trial? That Shlomo Filber? who essentially said he just juices the numbers for Bibi to account for the "shy bibi voter"? yeah bro thanks for the donation

12123423435345345 Jul 20

מי שחושב שגדי אייזנקוט לא ינצח פשוט לא מבין כלום מהחיים שלו

TheJewishHammer Jul 20

יש 2 דברים בטוחים בחיים. השם יתברך וגם המוות. לגבי המוות, אני לא בטוח.

pinedrop Jul 21

שכחת לציין מיסים

TheJewishHammer Jul 21

יש דת אחת בישראל שמתחמקת מזה

ydxistheking Jul 18

Bibi habibi

0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 4h ago

Bye Bye bibi

TheJewishHammer Jul 17

שבת שלום לעם ישראל וכול אוהביה. אמן

alexindacomp Jul 16

FAirPoly says that: The No side benefits from all non-Eizenkot scenarios: Netanyahu or another figure forming the first post-election government, prolonged coalition deadlock, or no qualifying PM by end-2027 (resolving to Other). While Eizenkot is the leading single name, multi-outcome markets put his share near 40–41%, implying roughly 60% combined for all others, and Israel’s fragmented party system plus his relative political inexperience leave ample paths where he cannot assemble a majority. With the binary currently at about 49% for No, a modestly higher fair probability around 53% is justified; tight spreads and deep liquidity make it easy to express, but the advantage is only a few points, so this is better suited to incremental, market-making‑style positioning than a large, one-way bet.

ROLBKEY Jul 16

My personal opinion is that the left is busy inflating the Eisenkot bubble as their little pre-election advertising campaign—just so Channel 12 can later report on how popular he has suddenly become. 😁

NOIZYUV Jul 16

Yep

TheJewishHammer Jul 17

How can I contact you my friend

TheJewishHammer Jul 17

Exactly

NOIZYUV Jul 17

Hey buddy, not sure if possible to send PMs here

0xdC26348AD3cf81fDC42c29248E6300db5E0bF360-1761784442845 Jul 16

Commanding lead for Eisenkot now

TheJewishHammer Jul 15

חודש טוב לעם ישראל

ophphirmatatu Jul 17

תודה אח יקר

ROLBKEY Jul 11

Netanyahu is the best prime minister!!! He did more than all the other losers. They can't do anything. They are a pig (or cat ) in a poke—nobodies.😁

NOIZYUV Jul 12

bro buy more shares then c'mon

OptimisticAndLucky Jul 21

Seems like you dont believe this yourself

pink.impala Jul 11

NetanAIu is no more, they elegant way to now admit that is to let him lose in the election, new PM gonna be Ben-Gvir or Bennett

0xdC26348AD3cf81fDC42c29248E6300db5E0bF360-1761784442845 Jul 11

A VERY interesting and in depth read of inside Eisenkot campaign from Haaretz called "Inside Likud Territory, Eisenkot Is Quietly Gaining Ground. Will It Be Enough to Defeat Netanyahu?" Easy to google archive and read. Thought it would be relevant really goes into detail about campaign strategy for the upcoming elections.

0xdC26348AD3cf81fDC42c29248E6300db5E0bF360-1761784442845 Jul 11

One interesting snippet: "Twenty to 30 percent of Likud voters are undecided about whether they'll vote at all," the professor says. "Eisenkot makes it harder for Netanyahu to mobilize them because he [Eisenkot] doesn't provoke anger. For obvious reasons, he can't be portrayed as the great Satan or as an enemy. Eisenkot is the most lovable figure in Israeli politics right now. That creates a situation where people who aren't prepared to switch sides can still tell themselves: 'Eisenkot isn't so bad, so maybe I'll just stay home instead of voting.'"

NOIZYUV Jul 11

Why aren't you buying?

pink.impala Jul 11

not everybodys gambling addicts like you man

NOIZYUV Jul 11

Man people giving advice and insights left and right like they experts.. I mean do whatever you want, just saying

TheJewishHammer Jul 10

שבת שלום מבורכת ושקטה לכל עם ישראל אוהביה.

pink.impala Jul 10

Not even Saddam Hussein sons changed name, Bibis truly the worst

NOIZYUV Jul 10

Was he your idol?

pink.impala Jul 10

billy idols my idol

NOIZYUV Jul 10

Nah you're more of a Saddam Hussein type of guy

TheJewishHammer Jul 10

Maybe Billy Mansfield Jr. Again you racist. Go touch goats.

pink.impala Jul 10

Yair Netanyahu, the son of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has legally changed his name and is now registered with the Israeli authorities under the name "Yonatan Han," according to Haaretz.

ydxistheking Jul 10

Netanyahu way overpriced tbh even if one of the satellite parties pass the threshold he's still at 54 seats at most.

autisem Jul 7

There’s no “other” option why do the rules say If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

ophphirmatatu Jul 7

I was also confused about this for a while, but from what I gathered It just means that everything will resolve to NO

0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020 Jul 6

37-40 cents on Netanyahu - the best deal ever. in the Worst case - head to head with Gadi, and he's still at the head of the big party. Will easily go up to 50 cent ! And long before the elections

0xaC520e6488dEb988c3593A9C427aA24c7c993410-1768070289364 Jul 6

Honestly, sell while it's still profitable. he's not going to be the next PM.

TheJewishHammer Jul 5

Don't trust people, who write here. Search it for yourself.

NOIZYUV Jul 5

Congrats for positive pnl bro

TheJewishHammer Jul 6

I put everything I have on bibi and Likud to be the largest party. I hope it will be, not for my money, only for our beloved country. If the left party will be the parliament, Israel is done.

hahahahah12 Jul 6

על מה אתה מדבר ביבי מכר אותנו לקטארים

TheJewishHammer Jul 6

אם כבר טראמפ. אבל לא משנה. העיקר שיהיה טוב למדינה

TheJewishHammer Jul 6

Thank you very much, friend. Highly appreciated. How can I contact you in private?

abdoohl Jul 4

A U.S. official told Axios: Many of Trump's closest advisers think that Bibi was wrong about everything.

Katrakila Jul 4

Even though

0x12FCc5Dd1cFE556EAEe7c592C1f488b78D7F3a22-1773206920815 Jul 3

Half of the comments on this site are fake news bots

PersonWhoKeepsGambling Jul 3

Only trustworthy source is Truth Social

hygfd876 Jul 3

amir ohana

cvbn678 Jul 2

Netanyahu holds a narrow edge over Naftali Bennett to become Israel’s next prime minister after the upcoming national vote.

vbn8700 Jul 2

The race for Israel’s next prime minister is tight, with Netanyahu narrowly favored over challenger Naftali Bennett ahead of late-2026 voting.

yui876 Jul 2

It remains hard to predict Israel’s next prime minister, as Netanyahu and opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot are locked in a tight poll race ahead of the 2026 election

0x12FCc5Dd1cFE556EAEe7c592C1f488b78D7F3a22-1773206920815 Jul 1

Netanyahoo isn't going anywhere

PersonWhoKeepsGambling Jul 3

Just like yahoo he will be defeated and laid to rest

BlindAndDeaf Jun 30

Yoaz Hendel is the next Bennet