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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$301,311 Vol.
68%
23%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$442,299 Vol.
10%
28%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$69,608 Vol.
7%
3%
Lecornu - France PM
$49,683 Vol.
4%
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$76,213 Vol.
3%
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$59,591 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$49,808 Vol.
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$56,491 Vol.
1%
2%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$54,330 Vol.
1%
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$54,688 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$65,093 Vol.
<1%
Trump - USA President
$54,245 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$83,098 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$61,478 Vol.
<1%
Putin - Russia President
$51,510 Vol.
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$49,746 Vol.
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$55,687 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$56,954 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$57,768 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$47,925 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$43,606 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$56,019 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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