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Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
$53,279 Vol.Oct 31, 2026PolyBet
October 2
$1,298 Vol.
73%
5%
October 4
$1,284 Vol.
51%
4%
October 5
$999 Vol.
63%
13%
October 11
$919 Vol.
51%
1%
October 15
$1,557 Vol.
40%
11%
October 17
$1,055 Vol.
6%
9%
October 18
$1,069 Vol.
99%
14%
October 19
$575 Vol.
6%
20%
October 20
$1,191 Vol.
91%
49%
October 21
$817 Vol.
88%
60%
October 22
$289 Vol.
47%
16%
October 23
$53 Vol.
47%
19%
October 24
$0 Vol.
29%
21%
October 25
$0 Vol.
50%
1%
October 26
$0 Vol.
50%
1%
October 27
$0 Vol.
50%
October 28
$0 Vol.
50%
October 29
$0 Vol.
50%
October 30
$0 Vol.
50%
1%
October 31
$0 Vol.
51%
1%
October 1
$1,959 Vol.
100%
7%
October 3
$1,583 Vol.
100%
5%
October 6
$4,236 Vol.
100%
7%
October 7
$2,217 Vol.
100%
2%
October 8
$934 Vol.
0%
13%
October 9
$674 Vol.
100%
36%
October 10
$353 Vol.
100%
40%
October 12
$3,556 Vol.
100%
38%
October 13
$23,665 Vol.
100%
70%
October 14
$1,345 Vol.
0%
14%
October 16
$1,651 Vol.
100%
32%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incide... This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (UTC) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Market Opened: Sep 30, 2026, 7:58 PM ET
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