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Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?
$186,185 Vol.Sep 30, 2026PolyBet
Tucker Carlson
$9,320 Vol.
100%
41%
Joe Biden
$234 Vol.
100%
Barack Obama
$3,504 Vol.
100%
6%
Jerome Powell
$8,412 Vol.
100%
94%
Nicolás Maduro
$4,247 Vol.
100%
Kaitlan Collins
$1,058 Vol.
100%
39%
James Talarico
$829 Vol.
100%
Abdul El-Sayed
$1,848 Vol.
100%
14%
J.B. Pritzker
$1,032 Vol.
100%
1%
Jon Ossoff
$4,300 Vol.
100%
2%
Mark Carney
$7,923 Vol.
100%
23%
Megyn Kelly
$598 Vol.
0%
5%
Candace Owens
$3,650 Vol.
0%
11%
Alex Jones
$449 Vol.
0%
13%
Pope Leo XIV
$1,729 Vol.
0%
3%
Vladimir Putin
$3,902 Vol.
0%
4%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$2,478 Vol.
0%
26%
Pam Bondi
$354 Vol.
0%
10%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$2,368 Vol.
0%
J.D. Vance
$1,912 Vol.
0%
1%
Melania Trump
$268 Vol.
0%
Xi Jinping
$2,635 Vol.
0%
1%
Andy Burnham
$4,350 Vol.
0%
4%
Elon Musk
$4,025 Vol.
0%
3%
Zohran Mamdani
$6,006 Vol.
0%
6%
Jimmy Kimmel
$1,404 Vol.
0%
13%
Emmanuel Macron
$5,585 Vol.
0%
5%
Friedrich Merz
$4,575 Vol.
0%
4%
Norah O'Donnell
$138 Vol.
0%
10%
Mohammed bin Salman
$638 Vol.
0%
6%
Kevin Warsh
$83,301 Vol.
0%
1%
Karoline Leavitt
$872 Vol.
0%
3%
Stephen Colbert
$419 Vol.
0%
23%
Kathy Hochul
$3,070 Vol.
0%
6%
Ilhan Omar
$903 Vol.
0%
15%
Letitia James
$2,674 Vol.
0%
32%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$1,032 Vol.
0%
3%
Hillary Clinton
$3,156 Vol.
0%
5%
Elizabeth Warren
$818 Vol.
0%
23%
Adam Schiff
$168 Vol.
0%
8%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they... This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
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