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Iran predictions & odds

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 22

94%

Yes94%No6%

October 24

88%

Yes88%No13%

$21M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 21

100%

Yes100%No1%

October 24

91%

Yes91%No10%

$38M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 2027

24%

Yes24%No77%

December 31

13%

Yes13%No88%

$28M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

55%

Yes55%No46%

December 31

33%

Yes33%No67%

$42M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

No

$75M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

72%

chance

Yes

No

$983K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei

87%

Yes87%No13%

No Head of State

4%

Yes4%No96%

$40M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31

16%

Yes16%No85%

November 30

11%

Yes11%No89%

$17M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$28M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

9%

Yes9%No92%

October 31

1%

Yes1%No99%

$76M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 31

30%

Yes30%No70%

November 30

23%

Yes23%No78%

$3M Vol.

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 31

22%

Yes22%No79%

October 31

6%

Yes6%No94%

$330K Vol.

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