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Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 31

100%

Yes100%No<1%

November 2

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$41M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

November 2

100%

Yes100%No<1%

November 4

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$46M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

71%

Yes71%No30%

December 31

44%

Yes44%No56%

$48M Vol.

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 5

97%

Yes97%No3%

November 6

92%

Yes92%No8%

$447K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11%

chance

Yes

No

$17M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$1M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 31

25%

Yes25%No75%

November 30

19%

Yes19%No82%

$11M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

5%

Yes5%No96%

$77M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 2026

43%

Yes43%No57%

November 30, 2026

26%

Yes26%No75%

$1M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

7%

Yes7%No94%

November 30

2%

Yes2%No98%

$21M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Kazem Gharibabadi

52%

Yes52%No48%

Abbas Araghchi

42%

Yes42%No58%

$2M Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 31

14%

Yes14%No86%

$149K Vol.