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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$300,365 Vol.
65%
20%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$441,103 Vol.
8%
31%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$69,244 Vol.
8%
4%
Lecornu - France PM
$49,327 Vol.
5%
3%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$75,802 Vol.
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$49,693 Vol.
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$59,476 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$64,993 Vol.
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$82,997 Vol.
<1%
Trump - USA President
$54,083 Vol.
<1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$54,553 Vol.
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$56,269 Vol.
<1%
2%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$53,852 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$61,363 Vol.
<1%
Putin - Russia President
$50,853 Vol.
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$49,631 Vol.
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$55,572 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$56,839 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$57,653 Vol.
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$47,810 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$43,471 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$55,904 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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