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2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science Vol $107,555 50 traders

1st hottest94%
3rd hottest7%
2nd hottest1%
4th or lower0%
$107,555 Vol. Science

Outcomes

4
Chance
1st hottest
94% ▲ 13
2nd hottest
<1% ▼ 2
3rd hottest
7% ▼ 12
4th or lower
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x1b0e…f132 BUY Yes $4.69 31m ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $4.97 31m ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $4.70 31m ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $5.00 31m ago
  • 0xe243…633b SELL Yes $168.36 3h ago
  • 0xbced…84e9 BUY Yes $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x4041…6f52 SELL Yes $0.78 3h ago
  • 0x4041…6f52 SELL Yes $15.16 3h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $4.20 6h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $59.82 6h ago
  • 0xed94…53fc BUY Yes $5.61 6h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $59.94 6h ago
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL Yes $39.68 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $18.72 11h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $2.40 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $1.50 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $18.72 11h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.87 11h ago
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL No $44.88 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $18.76 11h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $29.97 11h ago
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL No $3.50 11h ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $29.74 11h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $27.99 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $17.47 11h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $18.76 11h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $29.97 11h ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $1.22 11h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $5.52 18h ago
  • 0x0952…429a SELL Yes $5.40 18h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $0.55 19h ago
  • 0x988e…d0d0 BUY Yes $220.00 19h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $17.80 20h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $43.00 20h ago
  • 0x5600…4bdc BUY Yes $1.57 22h ago
  • 0x73a9…252d SELL Yes $1.01 23h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $24.19 23h ago
  • 0x826c…acce SELL Yes $1.76 23h ago
  • 0x2a2b…4b88 BUY No $2.00 Jul 22
  • 0x2a2b…4b88 BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 22

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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