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Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?

Oil Vol $10,819 50 traders

40+12%
<2519%
31-3316%
37-397%
$10,819 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

7
Chance
<25
19% ▲ 3
25-27
17% ▼ 10
28-30
20% ▲ 8
31-33
14% ▼ 6
34-36
27% ▲ 16
37-39
7% ▼ 9
40+
11% ▲ 4

Recent trades

40
  • 0x595c…1a1d BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
  • 0x0314…2f6d SELL Yes $2.94 3h ago
  • 0xd9a8…ec28 BUY Yes $4.79 7h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $6.16 12h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.32 12h ago
  • 0x7631…766d BUY Yes $5.00 12h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.12 12h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.12 12h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.36 12h ago
  • 0x7631…766d BUY Yes $5.00 12h ago
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $5.20 14h ago
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $3.48 14h ago
  • 0x52be…945c SELL Yes $0.30 15h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.55 15h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.74 15h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.55 15h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.61 15h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.76 15h ago
  • 0x52be…945c SELL No $1.95 15h ago
  • 0x52be…945c SELL No $2.10 15h ago
  • 0x52be…945c SELL No $2.49 15h ago
  • 0x2000…3f97 SELL No $0.09 17h ago
  • 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL No $0.07 17h ago
  • 0xb87f…f7d4 BUY Yes $1.01 17h ago
  • 0x0711…f03c BUY Yes $1.12 17h ago
  • 0xb87f…f7d4 BUY Yes $1.34 17h ago
  • 0x0711…f03c BUY Yes $2.23 17h ago
  • 0xb546…ca22 BUY No $4.30 17h ago
  • 0xb546…ca22 BUY No $4.23 17h ago
  • 0x4f1d…8de2 BUY No $4.23 17h ago
  • 0xb546…ca22 BUY No $3.05 17h ago
  • 0xb546…ca22 BUY No $4.15 17h ago
  • 0xb546…ca22 BUY No $4.75 17h ago
  • 0x4f1d…8de2 BUY No $4.75 17h ago
  • 0xb546…ca22 BUY No $4.65 17h ago
  • 0x4f1d…8de2 BUY No $4.55 17h ago
  • 0x4f1d…8de2 BUY No $4.27 17h ago
  • 0x0711…f03c BUY Yes $1.70 17h ago
  • 0x4f1d…8de2 BUY No $4.11 17h ago
  • 0xba0f…1011 SELL Yes $0.58 17h ago

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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