China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Recent trades
25- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 34m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 34m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 34m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 34m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 34m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 35m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 35m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 35m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 35m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 35m ago
- 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL Yes $0.33 35m ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.97 35m ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.98 35m ago
- 0x3b78…5ce6 SELL Yes $0.13 45m ago
- 0xe893…799a SELL No $166.95 45m ago
- 0x4c57…1cef SELL No $4.66 46m ago
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.97 49m ago
- 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.98 49m ago
- 0x3304…906a SELL No $4.97 1h ago
- 0x3304…906a BUY No $4.98 1h ago
- 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.97 1h ago
- 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 1h ago
- 0xc7b0…bbac BUY Yes $6.00 1h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.97 2h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.98 2h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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