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ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

Economy Vol $559,299 50 traders

No change100%
25 bps Increase0%
50+ bps increase0%
25 bps decrease0%
$559,299 Vol. Economy

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
>99%
25 bps Increase
<1%
50+ bps increase
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL Yes $12.64 11m ago
  • 0x4ad6…464c BUY Yes $3536.47 12m ago
  • 0x4ad6…464c BUY No $9746.27 12m ago
  • 0x2ed0…eed4 BUY Yes $1.00 13m ago
  • 0xd1a6…1507 SELL Yes $0.17 30m ago
  • 0x73b2…615d BUY No $10.00 30m ago
  • 0x73b2…615d BUY Yes $10.00 30m ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $4.50 30m ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $499.50 30m ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $0.21 31m ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.94 31m ago
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $0.21 31m ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $29.94 31m ago
  • 0x73b2…615d BUY Yes $10.00 31m ago
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $4.00 31m ago
  • 0x73b2…615d BUY Yes $10.00 31m ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $0.21 31m ago
  • 0x39c3…0c7e BUY No $194.34 50m ago
  • 0x7e59…7b8b BUY Yes $1.40 1h ago
  • 0x92ae…0376 BUY No $1.49 2h ago
  • 0x92ae…0376 BUY No $1.76 2h ago
  • 0x2a01…6397 BUY Yes $199.40 2h ago
  • 0xac6a…2ed3 BUY Yes $142.24 2h ago
  • 0x92ae…0376 BUY No $2.12 2h ago
  • 0xed7e…2fe2 SELL Yes $199.40 3h ago
  • 0xeec5…b6fe BUY Yes $228.62 3h ago
  • 0xb1f3…f0cd BUY No $10.44 4h ago
  • 0xf036…b8f1 BUY Yes $17.43 4h ago
  • 0xa108…abd3 BUY Yes $200.00 6h ago
  • 0xa108…abd3 BUY No $800.00 6h ago
  • 0xa108…abd3 BUY Yes $500.00 6h ago
  • 0xa0f2…1848 BUY Yes $1.57 6h ago
  • 0x4201…6133 SELL Yes $49.89 7h ago
  • 0xe605…ac5f BUY No $9.84 9h ago
  • 0xc757…ccfc SELL Yes $2297.13 10h ago
  • 0x2c72…58c9 BUY No $37.50 12h ago
  • 0x2811…6818 SELL No $24.48 12h ago
  • 0x9d8a…1f2e BUY No $15.00 13h ago
  • 0x7c30…dfb6 BUY Yes $22.00 13h ago
  • 0x9386…84a3 BUY Yes $11.40 14h ago

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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