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ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

ECB Vol $127,313 50 traders

25 bps increase78%
No change14%
50+ bps increase2%
25 bps decrease1%
$127,313 Vol. ECB

Outcomes

5
Chance
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1% ▲ 1
No change
19% ▲ 4
25 bps increase
78% ▲ 1
50+ bps increase
2%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x49ae…f3ba SELL Yes $14.26 1m ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 SELL Yes $0.98 2m ago
  • 0x8a4c…2c4c BUY Yes $18.76 3m ago
  • 0x7e64…c43e BUY Yes $20.00 3h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $4.81 4h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.01 4h ago
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.01 4h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.10 4h ago
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.10 4h ago
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.60 4h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.60 4h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $3.95 4h ago
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $3.95 4h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.18 4h ago
  • 0x9687…1b7c BUY Yes $0.18 4h ago
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $1.43 4h ago
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $0.39 4h ago
  • 0x49ae…f3ba SELL Yes $55.60 4h ago
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $118.50 4h ago
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $5.40 4h ago
  • 0x43fd…59d3 SELL Yes $24.54 5h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.04 7h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.01 7h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.70 7h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $3.95 7h ago
  • 0x5195…44eb BUY Yes $0.18 7h ago
  • 0x21ff…0d71 SELL No $33.52 7h ago
  • 0xa9b7…f43c SELL No $12.74 16h ago
  • 0x12d0…ba72 BUY Yes $1.00 20h ago
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL No $46.94 Jul 22
  • 0xbf98…4461 SELL No $24.00 Jul 22
  • 0x2a72…a2ab SELL No $29.64 Jul 22
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $48.00 Jul 22
  • 0x9e3c…4bde BUY Yes $13.75 Jul 22
  • 0x2f88…2dd1 BUY Yes $12.83 Jul 22
  • 0x78c2…22cf BUY Yes $46.35 Jul 22
  • 0xfd5a…aa7a BUY Yes $39.93 Jul 22
  • 0x0ffc…8236 BUY Yes $1456.61 Jul 22
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $5.39 Jul 22
  • 0x3423…fe57 BUY Yes $25.24 Jul 22

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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