European military action against Iran by...?
Outcomes
2Recent trades
40- 0xef1d…028e BUY Yes $2.00 42m ago
- 0x31e8…08ef BUY Yes $1.00 52m ago
- 0x5a22…17a6 BUY No $500.00 4h ago
- 0x5a22…17a6 BUY No $500.00 4h ago
- 0xac72…07c1 BUY Yes $1.00 5h ago
- 0x971d…19bc SELL Yes $9.24 5h ago
- 0xa1af…43d7 SELL Yes $0.70 5h ago
- 0x7ff5…a559 BUY No $100.00 6h ago
- 0x7ff5…a559 SELL No $97.84 6h ago
- 0x7ff5…a559 BUY No $100.00 6h ago
- 0xe005…5caa BUY Yes $1.00 9h ago
- 0xf058…e173 BUY Yes $8.00 13h ago
- 0x54a7…881b BUY No $213.61 14h ago
- 0x87bf…a0c8 BUY No $1.50 14h ago
- 0x0dde…94c3 BUY No $184.00 14h ago
- 0xce38…1325 BUY No $200.00 15h ago
- 0x1851…ae47 BUY Yes $9.00 15h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe BUY Yes $21.69 15h ago
- 0x72de…a5ed BUY Yes $52.52 15h ago
- 0xeaef…d242 BUY Yes $1.00 16h ago
- 0xacc9…c790 BUY Yes $26.40 16h ago
- 0xd06f…7bfe BUY Yes $2.40 16h ago
- 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $0.67 17h ago
- 0xf76f…de29 BUY Yes $1.00 17h ago
- 0xa97b…8e8f BUY No $1.00 17h ago
- 0xa97b…8e8f BUY No $2.00 17h ago
- 0x971d…19bc BUY Yes $9.05 17h ago
- 0x720c…8909 BUY Yes $1.00 19h ago
- 0x720c…8909 BUY Yes $1.00 19h ago
- 0x51de…9e4a BUY Yes $120.40 23h ago
- 0xeaef…d242 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xcca0…68fc BUY No $100.00 Jul 22
- 0x617f…89f4 BUY No $20.00 Jul 22
- 0x167a…91d5 SELL No $136.90 Jul 22
- 0x651c…9048 BUY No $1.60 Jul 22
- 0xd0b9…b03a BUY No $1.70 Jul 22
- 0xcfdb…3be3 BUY No $1.80 Jul 22
- 0xd228…afce BUY No $1.30 Jul 22
- 0xe3c7…4348 BUY No $2.20 Jul 22
- 0x258b…e72b BUY No $2.00 Jul 22
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the relevant European country and Iran and credible reporting.
Comments
Andorra, Liechtenstein, and Vatican City are included in the rules despite none of them having any military or even being associated with NATO lmao
The Vatican has Jesus + his army of 12 disciples ... they will basically overrun Iran peacefully
thanks for the fill... I guess
LOL.. never
Yopp