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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Fed Vol $506,807 50 traders

Other71%
Pause–Pause–Pause25%
Pause–Pause–Cut1%
Pause–Cut–Pause1%
$506,807 Vol. Fed

Outcomes

9
Chance
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
25% ▼ 12
Pause–Pause–Cut
1% ▼ 1
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1% ▼ 1
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
71% ▲ 13

Recent trades

40
  • 0x8ffc…9529 BUY Yes $223.70 31m ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $15.25 49m ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $23.10 1h ago
  • 0xb0fc…ce0b BUY Yes $162.80 1h ago
  • 0xdc76…5f55 SELL Yes $9.66 1h ago
  • 0x29aa…dd84 SELL Yes $1.65 1h ago
  • 0x93fb…b608 SELL Yes $2.75 1h ago
  • 0xeb6f…25f0 SELL Yes $460.71 1h ago
  • 0xf92c…87f7 SELL Yes $14.50 1h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $10.61 1h ago
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $14.91 1h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $14.00 1h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $28.00 1h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $39.76 1h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $19.88 1h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $3.76 4h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $27.61 5h ago
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $39.77 5h ago
  • 0xdc76…5f55 BUY Yes $14.72 5h ago
  • 0x93fb…b608 BUY No $8.62 5h ago
  • 0xf92c…87f7 SELL Yes $5.83 5h ago
  • 0x271e…f001 SELL Yes $16.64 5h ago
  • 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $17.60 5h ago
  • 0xf92c…87f7 SELL Yes $10.13 5h ago
  • 0xf92c…87f7 SELL Yes $2.44 5h ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 BUY No $7.97 5h ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 BUY No $11.83 5h ago
  • 0x8b85…8363 SELL Yes $17.00 5h ago
  • 0x34db…2e01 SELL Yes $34.00 5h ago
  • 0x3e3e…ea35 SELL Yes $17.00 5h ago
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $49.70 5h ago
  • 0x511f…cbe1 BUY No $305.21 5h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.36 5h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $497.50 5h ago
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $99.30 5h ago
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $7.36 5h ago
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $29.79 5h ago
  • 0xb0c8…fe7f BUY No $496.93 5h ago
  • 0xcd91…32b8 BUY No $94.33 5h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $7.44 5h ago

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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