French election called by...?

Please add December 31 and April 25 / May 2 (2nd round presidential election) as Emmanuel Macron might dissolve just before Presidentials to "softlock" the new President for 1 year...

Of course he won’t do that but be my guest

There should be another date, 31 December.

Who on earth can be long on this position?

If the mainstream parties get wiped out in the locals, Macron won't dare call a legislative election this summer; it would be political suicide.

"Mainstream" parties (LR & PS) won't get wiped out since control of local administrative echelons ("mairie", "departement" and "region") is the one thing that they can hang to these days. And the incumbency advantage is at its strongest for mayoral elections.

Sebastien Lecornu will make an announcement today. It seems likely that the 49.3 article of the French Constitution will be used by the government to pass the 2026 budget. The PS has already sent signals that they will be ok with it. And LR is a non-factor here. A new dissolution is very unlikely in the short-term. Especially before March mayoral elections.

I would much prefer the opposite, but unfortunately, I don't see a new dissolution happening in the very short-term. At the moment, the PS wants its stupid gamble to work out and then to claim that they won and that their strategy was the right one all along. And LR has already committed a political seppuku and is scared to death to return to the polls. I think this coalition of the weak should survive for now.

"Sebastien Lecornu explore l’hypothese d’une dissolution" - le Figaro The PM has asked the Interior Minister to examine the feasibility of new general elections at the same time of the mayoral elections. Probably to apply some pressure on the parties that have no interest in a new dissolution right now to be honest.

France’s budget is still unresolved. In January, Parliament must examine the budget, with the gvt relying on fragile majorities. A rejection could trigger a vote of no confidence, potentially forcing the Prime Minister to step down and possibly new elections. [link removed]

The timing would be awful. Parties are now focused on the upcoming mayoral elections. And new general elections would mean no budget for a while. It was of course incredibly irresponsible of centrist parties & LR to refuse to push for new elections when it was logical to do so (last September / October). The situation is messy and this government is pathetic but I think it will survive at least until March.

il ny' aura pas de dissolution avant noel, il faut que nos deputes puissent partir au ski quand meme

Yaurarien

FRANCE BAISE OUAIS

French election will not be called by, Lecornu will remain, Macron cannot afford to lose his prime minister again

I’m gonna buy more very soon. However this will depend on what resistance party introduces as for the budget bill. If I was PM, I’ll compromise now, give the socialists what they want in return for short term alliance until Le pen is imprisoned. Start betting on macron being ousted by June

What did I say people, what did I say lol.

free money elections before 31/12/25 ...

On vit quand meme une epoque ou socialiste et republicain se sont allies pour pas se soumettre au vote

Classical UMPS

nothing ever happens les gars

18 votes short. The October dates are off the table.

Yep. December another story, would still hard for PS to tell on every TV interviews that they accept Lecornu's budget

LR seats are all empty, it's over , fucking traitors.

It is relatively unwise to place money on one's personal hopes rather than relying on objective information...

Ca va se jouer a 10 voix, peut etre moins. On gaarde une haute proba que le gouv tienne, mais ca va etre drole a voir

ces cucks du PS perdent juste du temps

Joli pseudo, j'approuve

Mdrrrr meilleure pseudo

Ah ca, ca ressemblerait bien a ces enormes chiennes

Could a homie please send me a dollar? Thanks

5 PS deputies say that they will vote the censure. Guys... It's going to be really close. The fact that some contestation is rising might be huge. The vote of tomorrow is going to be REALLY close. Probably less than 20 deputies.

Right now, there is likely 8 PS to vote the censure, with uncertain number of LR dissidents... it will be played at about 5 votes under or above

6 LIOT, 3 NI, 8 PS, ? LR , -1 ECOLO we need 9 more from PS or LR than those who already said they will censure

And so ? Even if it goes to censure, there's no guarantee to have an election called so fast ... There's could be another PM ..

No Macron explicitely said he will instantly call the election if Lecornu is censored.

where ?

Just see it. Ok

We now have 12 PS deputees who will vote the censure. We are so close, we only need 5 more from LR or PS.

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PS and LR are getting a lot of heat for their decision, we know for sure some deputees will not follow their party direction, there is still a slim chance the thursday vote is won. there need to be 24 dissident out ~120

Tbh, it's less. 7 to 10 votes will come from LIOT and Non-Attached, and at least 3 PS will vote too. It will be very close. I would not be surprised if 9 to 14 LR vote too.

yeah I agree, I think it's possible to get a lot of PS and LR deserting their party and going LFI and UDR. the 3% odds is crazy, it should be 25-30.

The yes will be between 282-294

In all likelihood, the October 17th and October 31th "Yes" bets are now off. Some PS, LR and independent MPs will probably vote the "motion de censure" but it will most likely not be enough. --- It should be noted that, as it stands right now, LR (more specifically, LR MPs) is more or less committing a political suicide. They negotiated nothing and have nothing to gain by supporting the government. But I doubt that they will change their mind within the next 24 hours. --- The December 31th "Yes" bet might still be on due to the way Lecornu's government has decided to handle the budget discussions. It is 99% certain that the final version of the budget will p*ss off every party. Furthermore, the PS is still threatening to vote a no-confidence vote later on. But the timing is going to become less and less ideal for new general elections. Both the PS and LR will prefer to bet on March 2026 mayoral elections to build up/regain some political momentum.

force

its for thursday ..

Horizon promise to censor if the retirement reform is suspended. In addition Horizon's president, who asked Macron to resign last week, talk about a "dangerous concession to the Socialists". Nupes + RN and alies + Horizon are enough to censor this government. Buying NO at 90 is being crazy

Horizon is more popular than renaissance.... I disagree with you

even in the central block Macron pissed off a lot of people

Un depute horizons vient de dire qu'ils vont pas censurer, ca tient pas du tt ton histoire, c'est soit PS qui censure, voire LR mais c'est tout

He is right no one cares about Horizon

okay.

[link removed]

At any moment, elections are called as early as Thursday haha

Why would the no confidence vote pass? Lecornu agreed to Socialists demands and said he will postpone the 2023 pension reform.

Because only 20 votes are missing, and we already know that there are deputies among the Republicans and Socialists who won’t follow the voting instructions.

sorry i am new here, if an election is called let's say tonight, it means all YES win or only the October 17 yes? thanks it' snot clear for me :)

thank you

October dates 1%. Year-end 33%.