Sign Up
← Markets

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

UK Vol $9,321 50 traders

Bev Craig 15%+87%
Sian Astley 5%+0%
Bev Craig <5%1%
Other1%
$9,321 Vol. UK

Outcomes

7
Chance
Bev Craig 15%+
87% ▲ 2
Bev Craig 10–15%
12% ▲ 2
Bev Craig 5–10%
4% ▼ 1
Bev Craig <5%
1% ▼ 1
Sian Astley <5%
<1%
Sian Astley 5%+
<1% ▼ 1
Other
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xe9b6…5187 BUY No $616.50 10m ago
  • 0x1e60…b106 BUY No $10.00 1h ago
  • 0xcaff…e3ad SELL No $17.60 5h ago
  • 0x8797…bbbe BUY No $23.12 17h ago
  • 0xcaff…e3ad BUY No $2.80 17h ago
  • 0xc602…7fc1 SELL No $17.63 18h ago
  • 0x774d…9c18 BUY Yes $130.62 21h ago
  • 0x46b3…d3de SELL Yes $0.05 21h ago
  • 0x7fbc…8a45 SELL Yes $6.96 21h ago
  • 0x46b3…d3de SELL No $0.70 22h ago
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $18.70 Jul 22
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $21.82 Jul 22
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $21.65 Jul 22
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $21.98 Jul 22
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $21.91 Jul 22
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL No $11.64 Jul 22
  • 0x0d93…8cbe BUY No $4.80 Jul 22
  • 0xd9a8…ec28 SELL Yes $3.93 Jul 22
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL No $17.13 Jul 22
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $14.40 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $12.31 Jul 22
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $16.61 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $36.47 Jul 22
  • 0xd218…b5c9 BUY No $19.66 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $17.79 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $37.06 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $36.91 Jul 22
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.97 Jul 22
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $1.86 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.14 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.97 Jul 22
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $4.32 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $6.78 Jul 22
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.89 Jul 22
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.90 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $6.78 Jul 22
  • 0xfbd8…4027 BUY No $5.99 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $6.89 Jul 22
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $6.86 Jul 22
  • 0xae7a…25ea SELL No $14.50 Jul 22

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).

Comments

archaic Jul 4

The rules are a bit misleading here. There is no runoff election; there is only a runoff count (sometimes called the "second stage" of the count). The intended meaning was probably the following: If a candidate wins with more than 50% of the first-preference votes, the margin is simply the difference between the top two candidates based on first-preference votes. Otherwise, the margin is the difference between the top two candidates after second-preference transfers have been applied. In any case, clarification from Polymarket is needed here.