How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Outcomes
5Recent trades
40- 0x2762…2cf6 SELL Yes $1.40 1h ago
- 0xff7c…b233 BUY No $18.40 9h ago
- 0x2762…2cf6 BUY Yes $2.40 14h ago
- 0x184b…67b2 BUY Yes $1.41 15h ago
- 0xbada…d874 BUY Yes $1.44 15h ago
- 0x184b…67b2 BUY Yes $1.41 15h ago
- 0x9cfd…dfe7 SELL No $3.57 15h ago
- 0x184b…67b2 BUY No $1.43 15h ago
- 0xbada…d874 BUY Yes $1.44 15h ago
- 0xbada…d874 BUY No $18.20 15h ago
- 0x0218…41ae BUY Yes $10.00 17h ago
- 0xd9f9…0f4d SELL No $39.43 21h ago
- 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL No $5.96 23h ago
- 0x9e84…6624 BUY Yes $5.00 23h ago
- 0xee3d…d5d8 SELL Yes $0.59 Jul 22
- 0x167a…91d5 SELL No $5.00 Jul 22
- 0x43bf…3141 SELL No $1.78 Jul 21
- 0xff7c…b233 BUY No $24.41 Jul 21
- 0x198a…3ca3 BUY No $92.00 Jul 21
- 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
- 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
- 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
- 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
- 0x22e0…3adb BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
- 0xba0f…1011 SELL Yes $1.28 Jul 21
- 0xae7d…058f SELL Yes $1.30 Jul 21
- 0x2a20…89d2 SELL Yes $2.36 Jul 21
- 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL Yes $2.36 Jul 21
- 0x5d81…11a2 SELL Yes $74.88 Jul 21
- 0x5779…168d SELL No $13.31 Jul 20
- 0x32df…314e BUY No $4.39 Jul 20
- 0xac2c…68db SELL No $1.28 Jul 19
- 0x510f…a43c SELL No $39.94 Jul 18
- 0xe9fb…dbd0 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0xe9fb…dbd0 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0xe9fb…dbd0 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
- 0xc3cd…71ee SELL Yes $4.10 Jul 18
- 0xf17d…6f86 BUY Yes $1.06 Jul 18
- 0xf17d…6f86 BUY No $13.50 Jul 18
- 0xb743…0892 SELL Yes $0.62 Jul 16
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Comments
This week is major. Will we finally get the real numbers.
down to 4.2%
Really bad job reports. It went down because people stopped trying to find a job. "The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% largely due to a slump in the labor force participation rate, which fell 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% - the lowest since March 2021."
I agree with you. I think markets were overreacting to last month's report. It was mostly jobs from the world cup, as seen with hospitality jobs falling in this recent report
Does anyone know what moved this market? No news - it's around limited Mythos release time but nothing else..
what is happening
6% is higher tha 5.5% 🤣
my prediction: march release 4.5 april release 4.7 may release 5.0 june release 5.4 july release 5.7 august release 5.9 september release 6.6 october release 7.4 november release 7.7 december release 8.2
Bet on 7% then
i'm investing, not betting. already placed +5,5, +6.
not much difference between 6 and 7 in terms of odds.
feb release was 4,4. march will come 4,5 or more. easy. recession
picked +5 +5,5 +6
told you guys hahaha
%5,5 %26 is a gift.
end date is wrong
%6 is easy
6% soon
5.0% train cant be stopped