Sign Up
← Markets

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

SpaceX Vol $488,216 50 traders

7-811%
5-657%
<527%
9-103%
$488,216 Vol. SpaceX

Outcomes

8
Chance
<5
27% ▼ 1
5-6
57%
7-8
11%
9-10
3%
11-12
2%
13-14
2%
15-16
<1%
>16
2%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x510f…a43c SELL No $14.60 4h ago
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL No $12.00 15h ago
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $58.00 Jul 22
  • 0x5341…92d6 SELL No $14.00 Jul 22
  • 0x3e56…35d5 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $46.40 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $52.20 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $8.70 Jul 22
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $17.40 Jul 22
  • 0xc320…3d45 BUY Yes $16.82 Jul 21
  • 0xca09…eee5 SELL No $7.73 Jul 21
  • 0xc320…3d45 BUY Yes $30.71 Jul 21
  • 0xc320…3d45 BUY Yes $1.05 Jul 21
  • 0xf0f5…72bc BUY No $1.80 Jul 21
  • 0xec41…8b9e BUY No $37.02 Jul 21
  • 0x0314…2f6d SELL Yes $1.19 Jul 20
  • 0x2f7b…a660 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 20
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY Yes $1.30 Jul 20
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $58.00 Jul 20
  • 0xbd65…304f SELL No $14.70 Jul 20
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $8.55 Jul 20
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $37.63 Jul 19
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $8.90 Jul 19
  • 0x0275…b936 SELL Yes $1.74 Jul 19
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $16.60 Jul 18
  • 0x51de…9e4a SELL Yes $9.69 Jul 18
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $18.09 Jul 18
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $2.90 Jul 18
  • 0x8931…a90c BUY No $258.70 Jul 18
  • 0x770d…567a BUY Yes $5.20 Jul 18
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $2.55 Jul 18
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.36 Jul 18
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.85 Jul 18
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.95 Jul 18
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.97 Jul 18
  • 0x54c6…e5c2 SELL Yes $4.22 Jul 18
  • 0x6b11…38e8 SELL Yes $26.56 Jul 18
  • 0x3e56…35d5 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 17
  • 0x42aa…7d26 SELL Yes $2.45 Jul 17
  • 0x61e9…425a BUY No $3.28 Jul 17

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments