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Iran full airspace closure by...?

Iran Vol $5,571,619 111 traders

July 150%
July 3142%
August 3159%
July 210%
$5,571,619 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

8
Chance
June 30 Resolved
0%
July 15 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 31
42% ▲ 7
August 31
59% ▲ 9
July 21 Resolved
0% ▼ 3
July 24
9% ▼ 5
August 15
54% ▲ 8
July 27
31% ▲ 2

Recent trades

40
  • 0x882b…a746 BUY Yes $8.40 1m ago
  • 0x6c66…0d67 SELL No $7.88 1m ago
  • 0xf915…0c01 BUY No $1.00 6m ago
  • 0x595c…1a1d SELL Yes $0.48 7m ago
  • 0x595c…1a1d BUY Yes $5.00 7m ago
  • 0x29ab…afb8 SELL Yes $6.15 14m ago
  • 0xa35e…0188 BUY No $9.15 15m ago
  • 0x882b…a746 BUY Yes $11.80 18m ago
  • 0xff55…b58e BUY Yes $50.00 24m ago
  • 0x1b6f…09d5 SELL No $18.20 28m ago
  • 0x73e9…57f2 BUY Yes $2.79 28m ago
  • 0xf0c1…bb30 SELL No $19.05 28m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $71.00 31m ago
  • 0xd980…f637 SELL Yes $14.57 31m ago
  • 0x9dfb…e887 SELL No $74.19 32m ago
  • 0x311f…74b6 SELL Yes $5.59 32m ago
  • 0x73e9…57f2 BUY Yes $2.79 33m ago
  • 0x70ca…427e SELL No $2.33 37m ago
  • 0x371c…c236 SELL Yes $49.96 38m ago
  • 0xda91…9ffd SELL Yes $82.28 39m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY No $16.59 44m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY No $5.59 45m ago
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $3.92 45m ago
  • 0x4c57…1cef SELL No $2.80 45m ago
  • 0xda91…9ffd SELL Yes $5.59 45m ago
  • 0xdcec…d169 BUY No $2.46 47m ago
  • 0x510f…a43c SELL Yes $12.90 47m ago
  • 0xdcec…d169 BUY No $2.46 52m ago
  • 0xff99…5602 BUY Yes $1000.00 52m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $344.56 52m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $53.89 52m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $64.35 52m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $34.80 54m ago
  • 0xd5d7…4952 BUY No $50.00 55m ago
  • 0x3e3e…ea35 SELL No $8.00 57m ago
  • 0x7db8…ed19 BUY No $6.00 58m ago
  • 0xbbe3…5b92 BUY Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0x81f0…8b09 SELL No $11.55 1h ago
  • 0x81f0…8b09 SELL No $3.08 1h ago
  • 0x5144…37c9 BUY Yes $49.50 1h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

Latt 4h ago

Explosion Heard in the Kenarak County Area -reports in Iran

NOIZYUV 4h ago

Marco Rubio: "Iran is not ready to sign an agreement – ​​and will pay a heavy price."

Latt 4h ago

12:45 AM - U.S. USED A B-1 LONG-RANGE BOMBER TO STRIKE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) TARGETS IN IRAN ON TUESDAY, MARKING THE FIRST B-1 MISSION SINCE FIGHTING RESUMED 12 DAYS AGO.

NOIZYUV 4h ago

Explosions heard in Qatar and Jordan

Latt 4h ago

- The US struck Eslamabad-e Gharb in western Iran early Thursday - ISNA

NOIZYUV 8h ago

B1 bombers attacked in Iran

Shay1 13h ago

Hey guys something new happened or as usual?

abdoohl 17h ago

There are many children who will never be found because they were vaporized. This means that Minab will never return to normal. Yet we know that, with time, parts of our society may normalize relations with those responsible for such killings and may once again accept or even trust their future claims of defending human rights.

NOIZYUV 17h ago

Yep, what ☪️ is doing is terrible. A religion in crisis

Pitchforkk 18h ago

Six seven

NOIZYUV 18h ago

Iran Top Negotiator Ghalibaf says "In a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil...Strait will not return to the way it was before the war."

NOIZYUV 19h ago

Iran fires missiles at Jordan. Why are all Arab countries cowards?

Shay1 18h ago

Because they afraid to be the next Israel to be attacked to attack the shit out of their enemies and all the world turn on them somehow🤣

SIMOMEGA 13h ago

dont disrespect missiles like that

Latt 4h ago

bc they are all on the same side at the end of the day.

Shay1 19h ago

Smoothing big going to happened… the war back X3 way bigger by the end of the week… Israel and things I can’t say because I don’t want to be arrested and my friends to be dropped of the army.

velto92 19h ago

לך לישון ילד

velto92 19h ago

זה הימור אתה לא יודע שום דבר

Shay1 18h ago

חחחחחח… ילד? אני לא אגיד מאיפה אני יודע וזה בחיים לא סתם הימור… בטח לא פה שתגדל תבין

Shay1 18h ago

יש יותר מדי הוכחות בשטח וצירופי מקרים שקורים רק לפני א,ב,ג אבל אתה ילד אתה לא תבין אין לך מושג או ידע במזרח התיכון פועולות של מנהיגים ודיבורים ואיך לפענח מה עומד לקרות… חחחחחחחח עזוב אתה ילד עשיתי פה מעל 4 אלף דולר מכך ששמתי 70 לפני כמה חודשים ומאז שיחקתי על רווח והפסדתי לכיף ב5 דקות ביטקוין כי היה לי משעמם בלילה ובשוק אחד שהיה מכור בגלל שחקנים ספציפיים שלא אגיד את שמם שברגע שהם נגדך הפסדת לא משנה אם ניצחת על פי החוקים.

SIMOMEGA 13h ago

VP-Ns exist yk?

Shay1 11h ago

Mossed exist yk?

NOIZYUV 19h ago

Trump orders CENTCOM to open the gates of hell after US troops killed

Shay1 22h ago

Sup guys how are you today? Long ass night huh

abdoohl 22h ago

Lets just scramble the ordering of the markets, lessgo!

NOIZYUV 23h ago

From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.

NOIZYUV Jul 22

Sirens in Bahrain and explosions in Saudi Arabia

ArieLethal Jul 22

Tomorrow🤌

Rimchh Jul 22

lol ppl are betting money for trump words 🤣

NOIZYUV Jul 22

what are you betting on?

Shay1 Jul 22

Look like we going to see airspace closer and 2/3 weeks war back according to trump words

abdoohl Jul 21

This hot latina chick soldier got KIA and Trump blames it on Jordan SMH

SIMOMEGA Jul 21

name?

abdoohl Jul 22

Pvt. Isabella Gonzales

SIMOMEGA 12h ago

ty

abdoohl Jul 21

NEW: President Trump blames Jordan for 3 American deaths ‘They did slip something through in Jordan. If we had other operators, that wouldn’t have happened.

abdoohl Jul 21

President Trump: ‘We’ll be hitting Pickaxe Mountain pretty soon very heavily, and there’s nothing they can do about it’

abdoohl Jul 21

President Trump: ‘We’ve destroyed Iran’s navy, air force, radar, air defense, they have nothing. We destroyed 98%—some say 99%—of their missiles and drones, they may have some but they don’t have a lot. We’re winning very strongly.’

abdoohl Jul 21

President Trump: ‘Iran will never have a nuclear weapon’

Shay1 Jul 21

Trump said he is going to attack nuclear power stations soon

NOIZYUV Jul 21

Trump says we are not finished at all with Iran

NOIZYUV Jul 21

Trump says Iran wants to meet. We have no interest.

Mikelious Jul 21

Trump just rejected Iran proposed 10 day ceasefire.

NOIZYUV Jul 21

Iran fires missiles and drones at Jordan (at least 10 missiles), Qatar and Bahrain

Shay1 Jul 21

Fox News: US considering broader operation in Iran, including possible attack on Tehran and nuclear facilities* ✍️ Israel is expected to participate, according to US sources, if a decision is made to expand the fighting; deploying additional aircraft in the Middle East is what is preparing for the final part of the preparations. Since July 7, Washington has refrained from attacking Tehran and its nuclear facilities - a policy that is unlikely to change

Shay1 Jul 21

I think we might be cocking guys🤨 I just can’t prove it

SIMOMEGA Jul 21

overcooking

pink.impala Jul 21

NEW: Israel is preparing for an imminent escalation with Iran

pink.impala Jul 20

Something worse is coming, I can sense that..

NOIZYUV Jul 20

Report: It is likely that the Iranian armed forces will launch a security ground operation towards Kuwait in the coming hour

NOIZYUV Jul 20

Iran launches missiles to Jordan. And according Israeli i24, citing Israeli security source, says The US is preparing the next phase of the military campaign against the Islamic Republic, and the phase will begin in the coming days.

abdoohl Jul 20

The KIAs in this batch actually look good, one super hot chick (RIP) and one hipster

NOIZYUV Jul 20

Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over! This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military. President DONALD J. TRUMP

SIMOMEGA Jul 21

they will pay in polymarket shares!

Shay1 Jul 20

Guys only for me the fucking website look like everything bigger and zoomed? Shi driving me crazy

abdoohl Jul 20

its normal for me man, it maybe some type of bug on your computer

Shay1 Jul 20

I’m one the phone but yea maybe brother

Shay1 Jul 20

Btw Jordan help them to know where to attack..