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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Geopolitics Vol $7,993,605 159 traders

June 300%
July 310%
May 310%
August 313%
$7,993,605 Vol. Geopolitics

Outcomes

7
Chance
April 30 Resolved
0%
May 31 Resolved
0%
June 30 Resolved
0%
July 31
<1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7% ▼ 1
December 31
14% ▲ 2

Recent trades

40
  • 0x1ce0…37ea BUY No $51.47 1h ago
  • 0x76b0…bb5f BUY No $15.80 1h ago
  • 0xd520…7e01 BUY No $11.00 1h ago
  • 0x99a7…09ba BUY No $12.00 1h ago
  • 0x6de1…843b BUY No $14.90 1h ago
  • 0x59c2…c357 BUY No $15.30 1h ago
  • 0x3815…a6e2 BUY No $15.60 1h ago
  • 0x0e4d…ebfd BUY No $13.50 1h ago
  • 0xb140…45e5 BUY No $14.50 1h ago
  • 0xc76c…09c4 BUY No $13.43 1h ago
  • 0x4292…0077 BUY No $14.20 1h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $1.46 1h ago
  • 0xa8f6…7f8e SELL Yes $4.66 1h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $0.91 1h ago
  • 0x5044…22ae BUY No $13.80 2h ago
  • 0x6e99…8f2f BUY No $17.00 2h ago
  • 0x9aa1…fd0e BUY No $13.20 2h ago
  • 0xaf23…4468 BUY No $15.10 2h ago
  • 0xe298…f9b8 BUY No $15.80 2h ago
  • 0x58d2…1e08 BUY No $12.00 2h ago
  • 0x3811…8791 BUY No $16.60 2h ago
  • 0xd153…aa2b BUY No $12.40 2h ago
  • 0x562d…1d76 BUY No $16.20 2h ago
  • 0x046c…a895 BUY No $11.70 2h ago
  • 0x79b1…938d BUY No $16.10 2h ago
  • 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.75 2h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $30.09 2h ago
  • 0xa8f6…7f8e BUY Yes $5.00 2h ago
  • 0x638c…0e02 BUY No $14.80 2h ago
  • 0x5895…186f BUY No $12.50 2h ago
  • 0xdfe2…06da BUY No $14.30 2h ago
  • 0x80da…9bc6 SELL Yes $0.30 4h ago
  • 0x7339…bb17 SELL Yes $0.46 5h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $1.50 6h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $1.91 6h ago
  • 0xd286…2322 SELL Yes $64.88 6h ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL Yes $0.45 6h ago
  • 0xd286…2322 SELL Yes $88.82 6h ago
  • 0x405c…a51d SELL No $37.20 8h ago
  • 0x9207…7dc2 SELL No $27.90 8h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Comments

ArieLethal Jul 20

Am Yisrael chai

SIMOMEGA Jul 21

?

NOIZYUV Jul 14

People don't understand that there's literally a 0% chance for a full withdrawal in 2026

SIMOMEGA Jul 15

let them cook

arsenelupin Jul 14

JUST IN: President Trump tells Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and Syria, Axios reports.

NOIZYUV Jul 14

You gonna lose your money buddy

12beduins Jul 7

Israels pure evil, pure pure evil, nasty ppl, murderous ppl, horrible horrible horrible!

SIMOMEGA Jul 11

shut up if u have nothing relevant to say

ArieLethal Jul 20

You are lying, Israel is not harming anyone, you see the truth on the networks and everything they published about Israel was fake news. I live here and we never harm innocent people. All the terrorists around us use their citizens as human shields. Israel tries to protect its residents and even residents in enemy territory who end up harming us but we are human beings good people do not harm innocent people and if they are harmed it is because Israel is fighting against terrorists who are using people and children as shields. And our people are being killed. You are brainwashed, look at the people who support terrorism. They don't even know what they are saying. You ignore the reality that they are killing innocent citizens in Israel and people here. On October 7, it was Palestinian citizens who abused and harmed innocent citizens. You are simply a bad person. If you talk like that, we want peace. They want to kill us.

SIMOMEGA Jul 21

israeli colonists killed a young man like a year ago, they also want to do the same to his father, so "never harm innocent" is wrong, both sides are wrong

12beduins Jul 7

Yesterday, the IOF killed the director of a kindergarten school, Professor Aspirinza Ghendour, along with her mother, their maid, and a Syrian worker, in an airstrike on Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.

NOIZYUV Jul 2

At least 40 terrorists trapped in a tunnel ehich the idf is guarding. Possible senior Iranians trapped too. Idf just killed one that tried to escape

ArieLethal Jul 20

These are terrorists who killed children and innocent people.

pink.impala Jul 2

ive sold my shit ive never gonna bet in this stupid market again!

NOIZYUV Jul 1

Not going to happen anytime soon, probably not even this year

hyper-liquid-xyz Jun 28

2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮

SIMOMEGA Jul 2

Fars?

recko Jun 28

I hope that Israel quit Lebanon ASAP.

recko Jun 28

as a human, I hope.

NOIZYUV Jun 28

As a human I hope Hezbollah disarms so Israel can withdraw and Lebanon can prosper

recko Jul 2

Me too

J4RL3M Jun 28

its going to be Final now Benjamin Netanyahu as Agreement with Lebannon That they gonna stop war wich lead to withdraw from Lebanon

beggarrr Jun 28

BREAKING: Benjamin Netanyahu has moved to a secret residence.

abdoohl Jun 28

Imagine what a scumbag youd have to be to move to israel to live at land that israel ethnically cleansed for you

NOIZYUV Jun 28

The quran clearly states that Israel belongs to the jews

NOIZYUV Jun 28

Quran verse 7:137: "And We caused the people who had been oppressed to inherit the eastern regions of the land and the western ones, which We had blessed. And the good word of your Lord was fulfilled for the Children of Israel because of what they had patiently endured..."

SIMOMEGA Jun 29

religious books have no value, earth doesnt care about religion

NOIZYUV Jun 29

I know tell that to Abdoohl, he believes in that crap why do you think they produce so many terrorists

ArieLethal Jul 20

Forget it, they support terrorism, they don't understand. They are brainwashed people who support people who murder and harm innocent people. Israel is the best country morally, it protects its citizens.

pink.impala Jun 28

Netanyahu on Lebanon: We are destroying their terrorist infrastructure. There are bunkers, there are tunnels, there are terror villages. We are destroying everything.

pink.impala Jun 27

Towel-heads vs napkin-heads at it again its basically IMPOSSIBLE to predict anything in this market im thinking bout betting on some other market IDK

NOIZYUV Jun 27

Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon entirely in the next 1-2 months at least, if not longer than that. There is a very wide consensus among all parties including most of the opposition

LShibalba Jun 28

Show some respect ya muppet. Anyone with a functioning brain would know that there is 0 chance we will withdraw in elections year.

pink.impala Jun 28

Dont call me a muppet plz

LShibalba Jun 30

You are a muppet though.

NOIZYUV Jun 27

Lebanese soldiers were seen beating up Hezbollah supporters

NOIZYUV Jun 27

As I've said many times- no full withdrawal. It's literally part of the signed agreement

pink.impala Jun 27

Horrible horrible Israel all they do is destroy everything

LShibalba Jun 28

How dare we want to exist right? Keep throwing your money away, something tells me youre American

pink.impala Jun 28

yeh it was mistake to buy this i regret

SIMOMEGA Jun 29

so does palestine, and for the record, both sides are wrong jsyk

LShibalba Jun 30

No such thing as Palestine

NOIZYUV Jun 26

Naim Qassem admits: "It is impossible to break Israel's military power"

NOIZYUV Jun 26

3 terrorists killed this morning near Nabatieh

pink.impala Jun 26

Nice!

abdoohl Jun 26

At least 1 Israeli soldier has been eliminated and 4 others wounded following the ambush in Beit Yahoun, southern Lebanon. It happens when Israeli forces were trying to advance into the town.

NOIZYUV Jun 26

Nope, only 4 soldiers were wounded, with no casualties. The terrorist was killed though

pink.impala Jun 26

he said one terrorist killed doe

NOIZYUV Jun 25

The meeting between Lebanon and Israel reached a dead end due to the issue of withdrawal from the south [of Lebanon]", Al Arabiya reports citing a source

J4RL3M Jun 25

Times of Israel: Live Update arrow right icon From the Liveblog of Thursday, June 25, 2026 Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon security zone, US official claims By Reuters and ToI Staff Today, 12:08 pm driving along a road in southern Lebanon on June 22, 2026. (Jalaa MAREY / AFP) / Israel has withdrawn from some of the southern Lebanese territory it has seized in its war with Hezbollah, a US State Department official says, adding that Lebanon’s armed forces should now step in. There is no immediate comment from Israel. A senior Lebanese security official says they are unaware of any withdrawal of Israeli troops from its so-called security zone in southern Lebanon. The State Department official does not say how much territory Israel withdrew from or where exactly the pullback occurred. Israel and Lebanon have been holding US-brokered talks in Washington aimed in part at halting fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group. “Israel has already taken a concrete step by pulling back from a part of its buffer zone. This is a significant demonstration of good faith toward Lebanon’s legitimate government,” the official says. “The [Lebanese Armed Forces] should now move in and verifiably clear out terrorist weapons and infrastructure. This model will be repeated across South Lebanon, enabling the safe return of displaced families, reconstruction of the south, and the restoration of full Lebanese sovereignty,” the official adds.

Mr.Frog🐸 Jun 25

A senior US official told Reuters that Israel will withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army will be deployed there instead.

J4RL3M Jun 25

Current as an Israeli I heared it 2 hours ago in Israel news

NOIZYUV Jun 25

Sell before you lose everything

LShibalba Jun 28

Why don't you guys ever READ the bet youre making? In order for you to win we will need to withdraw EVERY soldier. Sell now if you want to keep it, we ain't gonna withdraw...

NOIZYUV Jun 25

Lebanese military: Israeli army has not withdrawn from any points in the area's occupiers in Southern Lebanon

NOIZYUV Jun 25

Reuters: Israel withdraws from parts of the security zone in Lebanon / Israel denies. either way not enough for a Yes

0x343472bC49384fac9A6F3A85651961d31b7BCe8d-1781419007537 Jun 25

Check the newssss

J4RL3M Jun 25

Israel Planning to withdraw from Lebanon:

NOIZYUV Jun 25

You need a full withdrawal for a yes

J4RL3M Jun 25

They will