Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Outcomes
5Recent trades
40- 0xee67…67a6 BUY Yes $3.35 12m ago
- 0x591c…4290 BUY No $2.00 1h ago
- 0x49b0…7fe6 BUY No $5.00 1h ago
- 0xf28c…cdf8 SELL Yes $28.03 4h ago
- 0x0ae0…2423 SELL No $286.54 4h ago
- 0x8513…e60a SELL No $1.00 4h ago
- 0xf8b4…a8b4 SELL No $1.00 4h ago
- 0xdcc8…0cb8 SELL No $1.00 4h ago
- 0xca00…eeee SELL No $1.00 4h ago
- 0x8638…6ab5 SELL No $1.00 4h ago
- 0x8513…e60a BUY No $1.00 5h ago
- 0xf8b4…a8b4 BUY No $1.00 5h ago
- 0xca00…eeee BUY No $1.00 5h ago
- 0xdcc8…0cb8 BUY No $1.00 5h ago
- 0x8638…6ab5 BUY No $1.00 5h ago
- 0xede0…32bc BUY Yes $16.00 5h ago
- 0x0739…aba8 SELL No $25.69 5h ago
- 0x793e…8631 BUY No $8.90 6h ago
- 0xef1b…8903 BUY No $5.10 7h ago
- 0xe367…6f34 BUY No $8.89 10h ago
- 0xaa32…f6b4 BUY Yes $5.00 18h ago
- 0x501b…fba0 SELL No $226.96 18h ago
- 0x5011…220e SELL Yes $0.15 18h ago
- 0x1a5c…dad1 SELL No $9.98 20h ago
- 0xd5ad…e47d BUY No $18.00 23h ago
- 0x15d9…6c00 SELL No $79.47 Jul 1
- 0x9d73…216b BUY No $877.76 Jul 1
- 0x8e83…bdd4 BUY No $199.80 Jul 1
- 0x8e83…bdd4 BUY No $99.90 Jul 1
- 0x21b4…1f06 BUY No $768.39 Jul 1
- 0x3329…43a6 SELL Yes $0.30 Jul 1
- 0xeab7…b389 SELL Yes $0.15 Jul 1
- 0x1ee9…197f BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 1
- 0x9d77…cf31 SELL Yes $14.55 Jul 1
- 0x8792…4174 SELL No $265.12 Jul 1
- 0x8792…4174 SELL No $174.17 Jul 1
- 0x40b3…da18 SELL No $116.78 Jul 1
- 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $20.00 Jul 1
- 0xc2f7…aef9 SELL Yes $0.05 Jul 1
- 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $10.17 Jul 1
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comments
add more months
polymarket perps, last few spots: 01kivwd2
Don't risk it. A memorandum of understanding or anyone signing anything whose aunties budgie was in Hezbollah will suffice :)
No way, July at 8c, we DO have a chance
nah, whales already rigged it
;) Goes Y soon...
i sure hope so
If you don’t take my arguments for shit then ask any of Ai and feed them rules.
«A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease» - in the agreement
“ The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.” - in the agreement
April Ceasefire market resolved to Yes despite Hezbollah rejecting ceasefire but Lebanon claiming it.
Israel is fighting with Hezbollah, not Lebanon so peace deal is including Hezbollah anyways
1) Where does it state in the agreement that "explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease" ? 2) Other bets are irrelevant. This is not a court, and precedents are meaningless here
The two countries hereby declare their intent to conclusively end the conflict and work toward a full normalization of relations under international law, to establish lasting peace and security.
«...establishing a framework with the objective of achieving a permanent and lasting cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.»
«This framework is a first step on the road to restoring Lebanese sovereignty and territorial integrity, securing a permanent and final cessation of hostilities... and allowing all Lebanese to live in peace, security, and prosperity.»
yep, so no "explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease"
You see word “Will” ?
Fucking motherless son of monkey
only intents, and future objectives bro.. nothing explicit nothing for present time and nothing about hezbollah. but if you're so certain pay $700 and propose a yes
hezbollah words doesnt mean shit if you read my past comments, i repeat again do you see word "WILL" in the rules ?
"if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal" - no such agreement "any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease" - no
" or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah" - not in the agreement
" Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria." - nope
" Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established" - nope
"The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah" - nope " however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" - nope
If anything, there's a consensus of credible reporting that Hezbollah denies the agreement altogether.
take your meds, stop talking to yourself, go out touch grass!
Hezbollah is included in agreement + hostilities ended and will permanently cease.
false
Wrong
Lmao wtf
?
Just so stupid that Yes at 3c, it should already be at 99.9. All criteria are met
This is Yes
source ??
Agreement signed
Hezbollah is included in every Lebanon Israel peace agreement
What peace? Hezbollah are fuxing around after Lebanon government sign an agreement to disarm Hezbollah.
Dienst matter what’s happening. This is announcement market. Lebanon signed framework to end war
So buy more bro, 60k its peanuts
Buy more No, 2k is a lot for you?
DISARM FIRST (Art. 4): Lebanon commits to the "complete and verified disarmament" of every non-state armed group on its soil, Hezbollah unnamed but unmistakable, before anything is given back.
Israel and Lebanon sign an agreement to disarm Hezbollah. That lower the possibility of yes. lol
💯
Horrible Israel now i lost money again cuz they refuse to negotiate in good fate, i fell for it again its just absolutely horrible!
They signed an agreement silly. You lost coz you dont listen
Bro wtf
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
I know you really want it, but it's nowhere near a yes
check ceasefire market and comeback lil bro
Buy more bro, it is so cheap
You have no arguments yeah?
Propose a yes then, you'll win 58.7k
Senior Hezbollah official: "We are not committed to a shameful agreement with the Zionist entity-we will continue to strike the Israeli army as long as it does not completely withdraw from our territory."
Doesn’t matter
lool someone shouid propose
will you marry me?
aww😳
No peace for you