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Chance
Macron out by...?
December 31, 20250%
June 30, 20260%
October 31, 20250%
July 31, 20260%
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Outcomes
4December 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
July 31, 2026
<1%
June 30, 2026 Resolved
0%
October 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
Recent trades
40- 0x83d6…8d3e BUY No $249.00 20h ago
- 0x46e7…db30 BUY No $149.37 20h ago
- 0xe4e8…b071 BUY No $99.50 20h ago
- 0x364a…db0e BUY No $5.52 Jul 22
- 0x85f9…f3e0 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 20
- 0x2411…58fe BUY No $7.99 Jul 20
- 0x1fb2…a893 SELL No $106.93 Jul 20
- 0x63dc…6839 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 20
- 0xa3ba…f54a BUY No $99.60 Jul 20
- 0x99fe…5705 BUY No $4.98 Jul 19
- 0x63dc…6839 BUY Yes $2.61 Jul 19
- 0x94be…2151 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 19
- 0x64ce…3c70 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 19
- 0x64ce…3c70 SELL No $4.95 Jul 19
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $15.41 Jul 18
- 0xac0d…cdfa SELL No $1.37 Jul 18
- 0x39cb…77fb SELL No $0.73 Jul 18
- 0x0e19…3f79 SELL No $0.38 Jul 18
- 0x1f0a…f7aa SELL No $990.00 Jul 18
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $0.12 Jul 18
- 0x1241…d325 SELL No $1.00 Jul 18
- 0xa667…ceb3 BUY No $55.02 Jul 18
- 0xcaab…24dd BUY No $99.20 Jul 17
- 0x1241…d325 BUY No $1.00 Jul 17
- 0xaf8d…dd9e BUY Yes $37.00 Jul 17
- 0x4e0c…9654 SELL No $94.75 Jul 1
- 0x4203…6646 SELL No $1.16 Jun 30
- 0xd256…dbad SELL No $3.10 Jun 30
- 0x67b9…c3ed SELL No $3.70 Jun 30
- 0xe301…be70 SELL No $18.02 Jun 30
- 0x888f…a542 SELL No $3.76 Jun 30
- 0x0e4c…c962 BUY No $1122.22 Jun 30
- 0x9b4b…591c SELL No $1.92 Jun 30
- 0x9b4b…591c BUY No $1.94 Jun 30
- 0x01d2…c603 SELL No $0.22 Jun 30
- 0x72e0…0b96 SELL No $1.95 Jun 30
- 0x01d2…c603 SELL No $0.07 Jun 30
- 0x01d2…c603 SELL No $0.23 Jun 30
- 0x01d2…c603 SELL No $0.04 Jun 30
- 0x01d2…c603 SELL No $0.92 Jun 30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Comments
Could we open december 31st and eventually another one later ?
Bit pointless tbh. Macron will finish his second term, there is no uncertainty.
Macron will step down early, but with all the protests and politics, who knows what could happen before his term ends.
2 et 9% c est ridicule, il y a des calls safu encore plus gourmands ! Foncez la bas, laissez-moi me goinfrer comme un force.
*forcener
c'est quoi un call safu ?
Laisses, il est taré
Le frérot il parle tout seul
Macron le despot reste dictateur de la france jusqu'en 2059
bounggaaaaaaa
Macron ne tiendra pas jusqu'a decembre, 20 USD sur cette annee
petit joueur, si tu crois en ta conviction pose moi un bon 10k
Macron's forced exit by summer 2026 amid pension riots and EU budget woes could hand the reins to a populist firebrand eager to torch Brussels' fiscal orthodoxy.
it's free
Macarons are delicious
French Rose
they cant even hold elections this quickly
I HATE FRENCH bureaucracy
At this point, who knows? It's starting to give Louis XVI hiding out in his palace vibes. If - once? - Lecornu gets kicked out, all bets are off.
Horizons president asking for elections. This is close, guys...
Once a budget has been voted... in 2026.
frere tu habites meme pas en france de quoi tu me parles
Memelord stays with us
[link removed]
[link removed]
mais vous comprennez donc rien
@SatoAkira un ptit mot sur le fabuleux nouveau gouvernement ? Bruno de retour, je suis en fou rire
I think it's a safe "No" yeah. Right now, the most crucial thing for France is to vote a budget for 2026. Macron's resignation would hardly solve anything. He wouldn't want to appear as a failed president who was forced to resign and who plunged France into even more uncertain times. Only new general elections being called before the end of the year is a realistic possibility.
He wants to stay, and no one will remove him, LFI is funny thinking they have a chance to make him leave kek. Not a single president resigned in like 70 years, he won't be the first, especially after being president after 8 years
LFI even know themselves that their destitution attempt has strictly 0.0000% chance of succeeding. If there was a way for Macron to spin his resignation as a graceful and courageous act to do, he might have been the kind of guy to actually do it. But in the current context, it's impossible. Plus his own camp is not even ready.
And as you said, even his resignation wouldn't lead to anything
Not done loading up...kinda disappointed. Maybe the 18th will yield better odds.
10% for 3/4 months is still insane, around 30/40% per year is a dream investment, with very to little no risk if we're being honest, there's more chance to see him die than resign
We agree. However I was hoping to get 15%. But there is still the 18th for that haha
Aight thanks for that free 10% in 3 month
si ce connard tombe, je vais jouir encore plus fort que la Brigitte apres qu'elle ai baise le petit Manu 14 ans
bahahahhaha
He'll get out with his first minister ! :)
You don't understand anything about French political system, there is no world in which Macron is out.
YOU don't understand anything about frnch politics. It's sure that if his PM goes down, and semi-chaos takes the coutry by storm in sept, he'll be weak, and who knows ... U are just trying to fit your opinion here.
it's not extremely likely but definitely could happen
Alors peut-etre
Allez on pump Macron
What if he just die ?
I don't understand this market. Why he'd be out?
There are a few crisis brewing in France, and a complete political paralysis that French people blame Macron for. He went through a number of governments and is kinda out of magic bullets. As always in France the make or break of this market will be in September when protests and strike will likely pop up everywhere, the question will be about the intensity of those, and the asks. It's not impossible they ask for Macron's head, but for him to accept to be guillotined is another story.
me neither its looks like free because he will never resign and said he never will...
Bro called it 4 months ago
Today's ban of Le Pen will only put more pressure on Macron
Non
Jordan will put more pressure
Absolutely not
it was a court decision and she actually stole money. Hardly Marcon's fault
why is Lagarda not in prison then? she took much more...and the judge has openly called for not voting Le Pen before the last election, judges are becoming more and more of a problem...
you're deflecting and Lagarde was not even accused of embezzlement
still you do see my point that the judge was not a neutral one as it should be...but as I said, biased judges becoming a serious problem (also in US and Germany especially)
yes please
Brigitte macron is a man
You have no father 😂
mdr sachant qu'on a retrouver son frere et qu'on a tout les preuve que votre theorie fumeuse est fake j'espere qu'il vont cree un pari la dessus qu'on prennent l'argent des consanguin comme toi