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Next Claude Opus released by...?

AI Vol $459,597 50 traders

July 3196%
July 2493%
July 220%
August 3199%
$459,597 Vol. AI

Outcomes

11
Chance
August 31
99% ▲ 4
October 31
99% ▲ 1
December 31
>99% ▲ 1
July 31
96% ▲ 17
July 17 Resolved
0% ▼ 1
July 24
93% ▲ 52
July 16 Resolved
0% ▼ 6
July 22 Resolved
0% ▼ 2
July 23
91%
July 27
93%
July 29
95%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x73a4…6e8c SELL No $0.95 7m ago
  • 0x0da4…edde BUY Yes $47.78 8m ago
  • 0x714f…66d5 BUY No $10.08 8m ago
  • 0x9c29…e1cc SELL Yes $211.17 9m ago
  • 0x4ef3…7bd0 SELL Yes $653.20 9m ago
  • 0x714f…66d5 BUY No $17.11 10m ago
  • 0x9ff1…e868 BUY No $5.00 11m ago
  • 0x9ff1…e868 BUY No $10.00 12m ago
  • 0x0ea1…c714 BUY No $1.00 13m ago
  • 0xd489…7f08 BUY Yes $9.99 16m ago
  • 0x0298…5cdc SELL No $84.30 23m ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY No $0.70 25m ago
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL No $4.67 26m ago
  • 0x75a2…6992 SELL No $0.80 29m ago
  • 0xb89f…f169 BUY Yes $303.65 30m ago
  • 0x090b…2a7a BUY Yes $24.93 30m ago
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $17.91 31m ago
  • 0xf961…34dd BUY Yes $2.00 31m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $75.45 31m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $1.43 31m ago
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY Yes $264.03 31m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $264.63 31m ago
  • 0x5fae…d8c1 SELL No $1.27 34m ago
  • 0x140c…4395 BUY Yes $36.29 34m ago
  • 0x140c…4395 BUY Yes $45.42 35m ago
  • 0xd88b…aefa SELL Yes $1.15 39m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed SELL No $1.43 41m ago
  • 0x51e1…3649 BUY No $0.43 44m ago
  • 0x122c…fbed BUY Yes $22.84 44m ago
  • 0x992d…e0f4 BUY Yes $14.96 52m ago
  • 0x3ad6…3023 BUY Yes $1.00 55m ago
  • 0x97ea…3363 BUY Yes $31.82 56m ago
  • 0x3890…cd3d BUY No $1.67 1h ago
  • 0x51e1…3649 BUY No $1.60 1h ago
  • 0x51e1…3649 BUY No $4.77 1h ago
  • 0x07cf…a9fa BUY No $1.17 1h ago
  • 0x9b07…a937 SELL No $1.24 1h ago
  • 0x51e1…3649 BUY No $1.60 1h ago
  • 0x683c…0308 BUY No $1.00 1h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY No $3.00 1h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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