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Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Trump Vol $44,644 50 traders

June 30, 20260%
December 31, 202669%
$44,644 Vol. Trump

Outcomes

2
Chance
December 31, 2026
69% ▼ 3
June 30, 2026 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xbfba…8983 BUY Yes $20.00 20h ago
  • 0xa4ba…c5d8 SELL Yes $4.74 Jul 21
  • 0xa4ba…c5d8 BUY Yes $4.86 Jul 21
  • 0x88b3…bad4 SELL No $1.90 Jul 21
  • 0xf81a…eba3 BUY No $3.44 Jul 21
  • 0x5207…686b BUY No $0.60 Jul 21
  • 0x97ea…3363 BUY Yes $166.50 Jul 21
  • 0x9bae…5d34 BUY Yes $4.40 Jul 21
  • 0x9bae…5d34 BUY Yes $8.80 Jul 21
  • 0x853c…bd03 BUY Yes $99.14 Jul 21
  • 0x853c…bd03 BUY Yes $4.43 Jul 17
  • 0x3fd0…7474 SELL No $0.56 Jul 2
  • 0x3fd0…7474 BUY No $1.00 Jul 2
  • 0x88b3…bad4 BUY No $5.10 Jul 2
  • 0x77b5…45df SELL No $1.03 Jul 1
  • 0xbc62…8e02 SELL No $1.96 Jul 1
  • 0xb44b…3fdb BUY No $2.00 Jul 1
  • 0x787d…cba8 SELL No $1.02 Jun 30
  • 0xea40…86b9 BUY No $4.99 Jun 30
  • 0x461d…474d SELL No $1.02 Jun 30
  • 0x7b84…a13e BUY No $101.00 Jun 30
  • 0xea40…86b9 BUY No $4.99 Jun 29
  • 0x2f77…4b79 BUY No $4.67 Jun 29
  • 0x30d1…4525 BUY No $46.74 Jun 29
  • 0x2f77…4b79 BUY No $7.82 Jun 29
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL No $228.24 Jun 29
  • 0xe018…8ace BUY Yes $10.00 Jun 29
  • 0x73ba…5a17 BUY No $1.64 Jun 29
  • 0xd378…5cea BUY No $1.24 Jun 29
  • 0x72c3…ae86 BUY No $1.65 Jun 29
  • 0x51a2…4a55 BUY No $1.75 Jun 29
  • 0x5c84…010c BUY No $1.16 Jun 29
  • 0x938a…9cfb BUY No $1.14 Jun 29
  • 0x7c50…efc9 BUY No $1.27 Jun 29
  • 0x05a6…53b9 BUY No $1.34 Jun 29
  • 0xc711…253d BUY No $1.32 Jun 29
  • 0xc711…253d BUY No $1.07 Jun 29
  • 0x4763…731b BUY No $1.16 Jun 29
  • 0x4908…2d4a BUY No $1.51 Jun 29
  • 0x8f36…324f BUY No $1.27 Jun 29

On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Comments

0xB82CaB212168b87255473F3f96de858406BEdB42-1778444199396 May 19

Trump announced new Tariffs on Canada over the weekend.

0x6C6b36d8832F8BcDfE86D40418E26b9B4722bdED-1765393783617 Jan 31

Trump threatend tarrifs im so confused

0x6C6b36d8832F8BcDfE86D40418E26b9B4722bdED-1765393783617 Jan 31

[link removed]

Bismarck1870 Jan 27

Volume is so low here

Catherina Jan 25

Tariffs on Canada hurt the United States itself.