← Markets

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Tesla Vol $871,817 50 traders

June 300%
September 3010%
December 3123%
$871,817 Vol. Tesla

Outcomes

3
Chance
December 31
23% ▼ 1
September 30
10% ▼ 7
June 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x9259…c2d3 BUY No $30.42 2m ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $14.22 1h ago
  • 0xc50c…3017 BUY Yes $4.25 1h ago
  • 0x3237…5658 SELL No $14.04 1h ago
  • 0x082b…ebe9 BUY Yes $23.00 1h ago
  • 0x082b…ebe9 BUY Yes $10.00 1h ago
  • 0x9259…c2d3 SELL No $26.95 1h ago
  • 0x1049…3a3c SELL No $3.60 4h ago
  • 0x0739…aba8 SELL No $10.01 5h ago
  • 0xf885…d719 SELL No $38.88 5h ago
  • 0xb838…aada SELL No $0.01 5h ago
  • 0x6bfb…3070 SELL Yes $1.80 6h ago
  • 0xc3f6…3910 SELL No $11.84 8h ago
  • 0xc3f6…3910 SELL No $12.51 8h ago
  • 0x0657…2b79 SELL Yes $1.80 9h ago
  • 0x002d…47a2 SELL Yes $1.80 9h ago
  • 0xc50c…3017 BUY Yes $1.00 9h ago
  • 0xcb95…611e BUY Yes $1.15 9h ago
  • 0xd99c…8490 SELL Yes $1.80 9h ago
  • 0xb22a…1479 SELL Yes $1.60 10h ago
  • 0x608f…9065 SELL Yes $1.80 10h ago
  • 0xa778…7238 SELL No $18.20 11h ago
  • 0x09b8…35d7 SELL Yes $3.20 12h ago
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $130.86 12h ago
  • 0x5675…f6a6 SELL Yes $1.89 14h ago
  • 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL Yes $10.80 14h ago
  • 0xeaa9…1737 SELL Yes $20.61 14h ago
  • 0xeaa9…1737 SELL Yes $7.10 14h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $4.00 14h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $4.00 14h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $4.40 14h ago
  • 0x84c3…35d4 SELL Yes $1.21 14h ago
  • 0xc50c…3017 BUY No $131.40 14h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $4.80 14h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL Yes $2.40 14h ago
  • 0xf534…5a56 SELL Yes $2.57 14h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $33.53 23h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $44.00 Jul 22
  • 0x45ac…d2bb SELL Yes $194.28 Jul 22
  • 0xc50c…3017 SELL Yes $34.50 Jul 22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

SIMOMEGA Jul 18

how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol

DontTrustMe Jul 7

Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.

SIMOMEGA Jun 25

dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?

ProofOfWork Jul 2

For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control

SIMOMEGA Jul 3

what are the downsides of a merge then?

BeyondAverage4ck May 26

The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened

SIMOMEGA Jun 23

How?

0xC1F43854000BFF81Da38332Fb25Cf94765bD5344-1768576770320 Mar 13

Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.

ProofOfWork Jul 2

He would gain control.

0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058 Feb 10

H

0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-1764900507058 Feb 13

G Wells