Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?

NO

I can sense the Drama ready to unfold

The executive order does not appear to satisfy the market criteria. The market requires that a qualifying action "create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models." However, the EO fact sheet repeatedly describes the framework as voluntary. It states that the federal government will collaborate with AI developers and obtain early access from trusted partners, but participation is not mandatory. More importantly, the EO explicitly states: "Nothing in this order shall be construed to authorize the creation of any mandatory governmental licensing, pre-clearance, or permitting requirement for the development, publication, release, or distribution of AI models." This language is significant because it expressly rejects the creation of a government approval or pre-release authorization regime. A voluntary information-sharing framework is not the same as a federal review process for the public release of AI models. The government may receive access to models and provide feedback, but developers are not required to submit models for approval before release, and the government does not appear to have authority to delay, deny, or condition public release. Therefore, the EO creates a voluntary collaboration mechanism rather than a federal review or approval process governing the release of new AI models. Under a plain reading of the market rules, this suggests the market should resolve No.

One weakness of this argument is that the rules say "reviewing or approving", not "reviewing and approving."

The EO explicitly rejects a mandatory approval regime, but the market does not require an approval regime. It only requires a federal process for reviewing or approving AI models. A voluntary pre-release evaluation framework is still a review process under the plain language of the rules.

Shingo if you want to propose dm me on discord

Doesn't seem like any proposers are willing to propose YES with the current information

This is being manipulated by Polymarket. EO clearly fits the criteria and should resolve to YES. Polymarket resolution teams are so bad.

Have you considered addressing your severe incompetence?

Propose hahaha

arguing "it's voluntary, therefore NO" is not well supported by the resolution.

please propose it, i think YES will win in uma

I'm not on the white list, in the discord you can request a proposal

I am also not on the white list

how to be on the whitelist, I can only dispute, cannot make proposal as well

You can transfer the bond (probably need to allow for x2) to someone who is on the whitelist that you trust.

i am on whitelist let me know if you need help

Can you explain this in more detail? I am also of the stance that the EO qualifies and this should resolve to Yes.

"voluntary" or the fact the review is not mandatory.... irrelevant under rules of this market. Nothing here says companies must submit models. Nothing says the government must approve releases. Nothing says participation must happen.

"A review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence" this process was not created to interfere with or control the "public release" it isn't "for the public release of new artificial intelligence"

Don't forget to remove your orders when Car start to post here

yea bro language is tricky but Executive orders are legally binding mandates.

The criteria only require the EO to create/authorize/direct such a process — they do not require it to be mandatory, include licensing, or force companies to participate. The voluntary nature is simply how the framework operates, not a reason to disqualify it. Dismissing this would ignore the plain language of both the EO and the market rules. This is a clear qualifying action, and it should resolve Yes.

I agree

FV is around 15c now, lol

@WHOSTP47 Lazy and inaccurate reporting from @NYT on this policy. The EO creates a process for frontier labs to voluntarily share cutting-edge cyber models in order to secure critical infrastructure and strengthen the government’s own cyber defenses. We are NOT conducting oversight of all new models, as that level of government overreach would have chilling effects on free speech and innovation.

Fok, I have used all my budget on Iran :'(

just lmao

clear NO

Not sure, I have exited and will use my profit to gamble on other markets :D Good luck y'all

EO fact sheet: The Order directs the Federal government to establish a voluntary framework in collaboration with AI developers regarding covered frontier models, which would provide the Federal government with secure early access for trusted partners to strengthen cybersecurity and promote secure innovation. The Order expressly states that nothing shall be construed to authorize creation of any mandatory governmental licensing, pre-clearance, or permitting requirement for the development, publication, release or distribution of AI models. Rules: A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models

The executive order create a federal process for the review public release. It doesn't matter that it's on a voluntary basis.

Explain me how early access to model on a voluntary basis represent a review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models. Again, from fact sheet: The Order directs the Federal government to establish a voluntary framework in collaboration with AI developers regarding covered frontier models, which would provide the Federal government with secure early access for trusted partners to strengthen cybersecurity and promote secure innovation.

Because it’s not just “early access.” The EO directs agencies to create a classified benchmarking process, assess advanced cyber capabilities, determine which models qualify as “covered frontier models,” and let developers engage the government on models under development before release. That is a federal review/designation process.

“NON-BINDING STATEMENTS, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify.“

it's not a "non-binding statement", there is an executive order

What's going on here

The government review is not required, but voluntary. This shouldn’t matter, as all rules have been met, but it’s def a bit scary, especially because PM can just make a clarification saying that the EO doesn’t qualify since it is not required (despite this not being in the rules). Honestly it’s a toss up. Not sure why the volume is still so low though.

From the rules: “ any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models… A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally…” I think the EO meets this, despite the framework not being required to be adhered to. The framework exists and applies to all AI models in general, it’s just voluntary. I could see this going either way after clarification. The rules say ‘yes’, but we all know words have no meaning in PM.

Also, my comments are really only about general models being released to the public. I couldn’t really understand the verbiage of the EO or these rules well enough to have a clear view of other portions that could settle this market on as “Yes” (namely the cybersecurity and national security portions).

I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to answer. I also assume it's about the "voluntary", in fact that's the reason why I bought No, even though I also viewed some wording leans towards Yes (hence the very low sizing on my purchase). Not sure, I think I won't touch this unless a gambler in me wakes up again :)

HASSETT: WILL BE HARDER FOR NEW AI MODELS TO BE HACKERS

I almost TACOed from the trade myself. [link removed]

Easy NO now if trump doesn't TACO!

fuck this mf changing his mind last minute

What's happen?

thanks all-in podcast for putting this matter to rest in your latest episode

All money on no