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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Geopolitics Vol $2,490,191 50 traders

Yes24%
No77%
$2,490,191 Vol. Geopolitics
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
24% ▲ 2

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25
  • 0x994b…5077 BUY No $113.00 39m ago
  • 0x994b…5077 BUY No $300.00 40m ago
  • 0x994b…5077 BUY No $300.00 40m ago
  • 0x994b…5077 BUY No $237.00 41m ago
  • 0x994b…5077 BUY No $95.00 42m ago
  • 0x994b…5077 BUY No $157.00 44m ago
  • 0x4c57…1cef SELL No $3.80 46m ago
  • 0xa48b…60fd SELL Yes $21.56 56m ago
  • 0xd706…a916 SELL No $5.59 1h ago
  • 0xd7d9…7b43 SELL No $3.80 1h ago
  • 0x4c57…1cef BUY No $3.85 1h ago
  • 0xcabd…d0ca SELL Yes $2.25 2h ago
  • 0x6c1a…e6e3 SELL Yes $1.38 2h ago
  • 0x533a…aa0f SELL Yes $1.35 3h ago
  • 0xba57…cc6f BUY Yes $2.40 4h ago
  • 0x9db6…8bf8 SELL Yes $2.88 4h ago
  • 0x4542…2637 BUY No $20.00 4h ago
  • 0x8f41…260e BUY No $308.00 16h ago
  • 0xb52a…ea29 SELL No $0.98 16h ago
  • 0x40c5…5cba BUY No $140.38 16h ago
  • 0x40c5…5cba BUY No $119.59 16h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $3.75 16h ago
  • 0x4168…4240 BUY No $1.10 16h ago
  • 0xb52a…ea29 BUY No $1.00 16h ago
  • 0x32b4…7f09 SELL No $7513.86 16h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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