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US charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran Vol $848,090 50 traders

July 170%
July 311%
August 312%
December 319%
$848,090 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

4
Chance
July 17 Resolved
0%
July 31
<1%
August 31
2%
December 31
9% ▲ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.95 5h ago
  • 0x1927…c627 SELL Yes $1.20 5h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.20 5h ago
  • 0xd3e5…17ee SELL Yes $0.95 6h ago
  • 0xc5a0…8189 SELL Yes $7.00 8h ago
  • 0xc5a0…8189 BUY Yes $9.00 9h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $2.38 13h ago
  • 0x458c…c504 SELL No $49.60 13h ago
  • 0xcaab…24dd SELL No $501.03 13h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $4.62 16h ago
  • 0xcc79…1c2a BUY No $990.39 16h ago
  • 0x9b51…e1a1 SELL Yes $0.70 17h ago
  • 0x032a…cf07 BUY Yes $3.00 18h ago
  • 0x032a…cf07 BUY Yes $2.00 18h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 SELL No $4.89 20h ago
  • 0x9614…d217 SELL No $4.96 20h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.04 20h ago
  • 0x3d05…acde SELL Yes $0.14 21h ago
  • 0x0275…b936 SELL Yes $0.11 21h ago
  • 0x0275…b936 SELL Yes $1.16 21h ago
  • 0x3d05…acde SELL Yes $0.16 23h ago
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 SELL No $1410.23 Jul 22
  • 0xb17d…59ae SELL Yes $28.15 Jul 22
  • 0xcc79…1c2a BUY No $1408.66 Jul 22
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 SELL No $1410.25 Jul 22
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 SELL No $809.67 Jul 22
  • 0xa667…ceb3 SELL Yes $1.05 Jul 22
  • 0x118d…67a8 SELL No $4.96 Jul 21
  • 0x1c00…7af4 SELL No $49.60 Jul 21
  • 0xb51b…b4d9 SELL No $2821.76 Jul 21
  • 0x198a…3ca3 BUY No $92.00 Jul 21
  • 0xb141…aa3b SELL Yes $2.12 Jul 21
  • 0xb141…aa3b SELL Yes $9.60 Jul 21
  • 0xd0db…b117 BUY No $78.30 Jul 21
  • 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL No $9.93 Jul 21
  • 0xb5c4…cb3b SELL No $25.29 Jul 21
  • 0xdc4f…4652 BUY No $839.09 Jul 21
  • 0xe172…248a SELL Yes $20.56 Jul 21
  • 0xb17d…59ae SELL Yes $203.14 Jul 21
  • 0x2a5b…b78b SELL No $1.03 Jul 21

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

Comments

conotocaurius Jul 14

The underlying value of Dec 31st is 2c; the underlying value of the other dates is 0c.

NoSteinNoGate Jul 14

People on poly significantly overprice very unlikely events

variant1.meta Jul 15

For this market the title is misleading a bit. In fact you can call it "will anyone pay the US anything for Hormuz security by Dec 31". Does not sound like 2c.

conotocaurius Jul 15

no, it really does sound like 2c. The US will never be allowed by Iran to offer protection money in Hormuz. Potentially in other waters like Panama or Malacca, where there is not an incumbent great power on the littoral.

deadinternettheory Jul 14

Permanent peace btw