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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Politics Vol $28,636,382 572 traders

May 310%
June 300%
December 3114%
April 300%
$28,636,382 Vol. Politics

Outcomes

7
Chance
April 30 Resolved
0%
December 31
14%
June 30 Resolved
0%
July 31 Resolved
0%
July 31
<1%
September 30
7%
May 31 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x0f18…5b28 BUY No $20.00 30m ago
  • 0x8f5e…0a0e SELL No $262.88 30m ago
  • 0x8f5e…0a0e BUY No $263.14 37m ago
  • 0xf114…8003 SELL Yes $6.47 55m ago
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  • 0x0f18…5b28 SELL No $0.35 3h ago
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  • 0x25c5…8581 SELL Yes $8.50 4h ago
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  • 0x0f18…5b28 BUY No $1.00 7h ago
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  • 0xaf93…1831 BUY No $81.00 7h ago
  • 0x86c7…8243 BUY Yes $1.00 7h ago
  • 0xd4b8…7bf1 BUY No $87.00 8h ago
  • 0x198a…3ca3 BUY No $94.00 10h ago
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  • 0xad52…11ac SELL Yes $188.37 14h ago
  • 0xad52…11ac SELL Yes $31.86 16h ago
  • 0x9d77…cf31 BUY Yes $20.00 16h ago
  • 0x9231…7a72 SELL No $39.53 19h ago
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  • 0x359f…6be2 SELL No $1028.96 20h ago
  • 0xaf57…7927 SELL No $281.02 22h ago
  • 0xd17f…08f2 SELL No $229.38 22h ago
  • 0xaf57…7927 BUY No $281.30 22h ago
  • 0x8332…2bf0 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x25c5…8581 SELL Yes $11.33 Jul 22
  • 0x11f3…d859 BUY No $470.00 Jul 22

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

hyper-liquid-xyz Jun 28

2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮

.solvex Jun 16

you know where is drop?

redsyhgrey Jun 13

Yolft predicts no peace deal by June end, forget US obtaining uranium

sonnguyen95 Jun 5

who even Yes this

0x61a376E94E646a45E12F48Fd16be637f224B4bC1-1778581595666 Jun 8

hello

zthunderfury Jun 5

BrightStars sold 26,085 Yes for June 30 at 2.7¢ ($695)

BrightStars Jun 5

hey

Latt Jun 4

1:21 PM - Trump: I am not considering a covert operation to seize Iran uranium. There's no reason to get Iran nuclear dust, it's entombed.

lifeisbs May 31

you never know. Trump said he will unearthen the nuclear dust and he will not end the war until he gets it.

kevtp May 26

So if Iran ships the Uranium to China, and China agrees with the US it won't give it back to Iran unless the US violates the deal - does that count as the Uranium being "under US control" in the rules? Indirectly in a legal way it kinda is, just not physical. That likely outcome should be clarified by Polymarket or there should be some consensus how it would resolve

kevtp May 26

And the rules say "physical custody OR control" and "US territory or elsewhere" - so in a typical resolution dispute drama it could be argued, even if far fetched, that China holding it qualifies as legal control outside US territory

toutiege May 25

It will be shipped to China

zthunderfury May 26

So the US buys it from China or what?

something-know May 25

TheQuietRisk - mad ?

StillWater0 May 24

come on mojtaba just give Trump 1 miligram of uranium and we all will be happy

BrightStars May 24

Stop The Delay

studmuffin6969 May 24

no? i'm too lazy to figure out why.

0x51005639Eeb10384367A63693a185D67146D35dc-1773149826479 May 23

pulled this up on Ten poly on a whim and now I genuinely can't look away

studmuffin6969 May 24

fu

0x51005639Eeb10384367A63693a185D67146D35dc-1773149826479 May 24

??

riyyyaa May 23

iForgor May 23

Just go in an nip the uranium lmao

BrightStars May 23

not easy

Ziomancer May 23

I could do it

ImAdUmDuM May 23

I'll see what I can do

MEPP May 23

emergency alert ! [link removed]

PAULPAUL3 May 23

hmmmmm

vasidjey May 19

you should learn iranian military history if you think that US obtains uranium

GautengWolf May 19

take a hear here [link removed]

SARJIL May 18

no chance iran will let it do

Tigerofthehood May 18

mewmew1 May 18

🔥🔥🔥🔥

BrightStars May 18

why do you bet so much

BrightStars May 18

exiting his position 🤐

Tigerofthehood May 19

adonpoli May 18

don t click on link its scam

BeneGesseritVoice May 16

Uranusium

mewmew1 May 16

that guy TheQuietRisk is cooked

Dumpahhh May 17

Talophex May 14

I really hate that phrase “any quantity”. What about atmospheric material collected from low flights over the site we bombed for monitoring purposes? Hmmmm.

adonpoli May 14

maybe some powder work idk

BrightStars May 13

Lowtaperfade May 12

I dont really get the price on this one...

kevtp May 10

Considering the current Iranian proposal is to give some of the Uranium to a third country, likely Russia/China/Pakistan, so that it can be returned to them if further negotiations fail, how does everyone understand the third country rule here on Polymarket? "“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere." this section. My interpretation that the current proposed third country transfer would not resolve this market to YES, since it is unlikely to give the US physical possession - at most they would likely have inspectors or the word of the country actually receiving the Uranium. "Physical custody or control" to me implies for instance the ability to not give it back to Iran if requested, exactly what Iran is not wanting to agree to. The whole rule is kinda nonsense though, as I can not imagine any scenario where it is stored in a country like Russia but at the same time under US physical custody or control - the only such place in Russia I suppose would be the US embassy, it's not like they'd let the US fly the uranium themselves to Russia, or let the US rent a compound with US soldiers and the Uranium in that compound, which would imply the "physical custody or control" the rules mention... If Russia just secures it and says "you got my word US we won't send it back to Iran" that obviously does not qualify as US control.

Lowtaperfade May 10

correct

Lowtaperfade May 10

correct+

HolyMoses7 May 10

What if the us invades iran to take it

iutwpfal May 12

If they mix some into trump's coffee how will this resolve?

Tigerofthehood May 13

What if the aliens take it and give it to us

kar76 May 10

poly95

Spirit-LT May 10

RAN'S RESPONSE TO US INCLUDES PROPOSAL TO DILUTE URANIUM & TRANSFER SOME TO THIRD COUNTRY - WSJ

primarchh May 9

6 cents for yes may 31 seems cheap af

Tchaaa May 8

Guys Iran don’t had uranium

snoopsol May 6

Bros risking their money based on what trump says..

busheo955 May 6

Trump just anounced it lol

BlancheDevereaux12 May 6

but not by a specific date

0xE29549Cc64930dDb360d5a8112ae55050D4655B3-1759298100920 May 6

Trump just anounced that the uranium is going to the US

0xd8b6E4c7fd0046f18b5004F6A9AcDB735Fbb11c5-1774375403728 May 6

Axios, citing two informed sources: Iran has agreed to remove the highly enriched uranium

tomatoo May 6

Trump warns strikes on Iran will restart at 'higher level than before' if peace deal not agreed - bbc

Hawk-x May 6

Axios