US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
Outcomes
5Recent trades
40- 0x5aac…b38b BUY No $1.00 10m ago
- 0xd13b…f480 BUY No $3.00 11m ago
- 0x9527…48a9 BUY No $10.00 11m ago
- 0xd13b…f480 SELL No $3.00 11m ago
- 0x7a88…62a0 BUY No $19.30 17m ago
- 0x5adc…79d6 SELL Yes $1.02 24m ago
- 0xe874…52a4 SELL No $5.50 30m ago
- 0x7df6…ac3b SELL No $168.00 32m ago
- 0x6214…20d1 BUY No $100.00 32m ago
- 0xa4ba…c5d8 BUY No $4.59 36m ago
- 0x68c2…1711 SELL Yes $383.92 39m ago
- 0x9014…5b73 BUY Yes $500.00 39m ago
- 0xe7ab…b9a4 SELL Yes $155.25 47m ago
- 0xfb51…742d BUY No $2573.33 49m ago
- 0xb2ef…90e2 BUY No $300.00 51m ago
- 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.98 56m ago
- 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.99 56m ago
- 0x755c…ba9f BUY Yes $30.00 1h ago
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $5.50 1h ago
- 0xd67b…5780 SELL Yes $4.20 1h ago
- 0x72a1…c5e4 SELL No $3.31 1h ago
- 0x4b3c…2688 SELL Yes $4.08 1h ago
- 0xb003…97e1 SELL Yes $30.00 1h ago
- 0x1698…75b9 BUY Yes $1.00 1h ago
- 0xe8d6…e410 SELL Yes $6.24 1h ago
- 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $4.81 1h ago
- 0x7555…7822 SELL No $442.98 1h ago
- 0xfc48…05f5 BUY No $5.00 1h ago
- 0xe907…cff6 BUY Yes $186.91 1h ago
- 0x882b…a746 SELL No $28.89 1h ago
- 0xffb3…fc52 BUY No $20.00 1h ago
- 0x1aab…6c6f BUY No $116.68 1h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 2h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 2h ago
- 0xd13b…f480 BUY No $3.00 2h ago
- 0x5adc…79d6 BUY Yes $1.07 2h ago
- 0x4bff…286c BUY Yes $1.00 2h ago
- 0x7bdd…5fb3 BUY No $12.75 2h ago
- 0xe7ab…b9a4 SELL Yes $6.06 2h ago
- 0xd8d5…8935 BUY No $771.20 2h ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
Comments
As long as the orange baboon is still in the white house, THIS IS NOT HAPPENING.
hahaha
US has agreed Saudi Arabia is allowed to enrich uranium, per WSJ. This makes the Iran no nuclear weapons more improbable to accept. There might be a 10 day pause or a few day pause but not a 2 week pause.
Trump says US ‘not finished at all’ as Iran attacks continue US President Donald Trump has met with Lebanese leader Joseph Aoun in Washington, DC. It was the first time a Lebanese head of state has visited the White House since 2009. While Trump hailed his relationship with Aoun, he also had strong words for Tehran.
Yes
No*
if it resolves in 2 weeks by the listed date then why not js have the listed date be 2 weeks in the future? that would make it much more clear.
sounds like incoming scam
its if the ceasefire starts by date x So if they stop shooting by july 24, we get 2 weeks to wait to see if they start shooting again if they start shooting again it goes no
ty
what does this have to do with scams
Remember to never buy into these type of markets they are a complete scam and the whales will “win” no matter what. Trust me i learnt this the hard way
these types of markets? i am watching out for iran markets but im curious if theres any other specific markets to watch out for too
I thought we had permanent peace on june 15 ....
Just another scam market wait for the whales to vote and close it early. Bullshit polymarket
US begins 10th consecutive night of Iran strikes, CENTCOM says US forces began a new round of strikes against Iran at 4 p.m. ET on Monday at the direction of the commander in chief, CENTCOM said in a post on X.
BREAKING: Mediators had proposed a 10-day pause in hostilities between the US and ISIS-like Iran to revive their fragile interim peace agreement. Negotiation with ISIS-like Iran might be successful!
both sides prefer war than peace
especially the us 🤣
US to send additional F-16s, F-35s and refueling tankers to Mideast - CNN
I can't believe they have the audacity to create this market after resolving YES to the US-Iran PERNAMENT PEACE market.. FK SCAM
New war, new market.
Why is yes spiking? No actual reason at all
Insider trading
does July 18 resolve in 2 weeks, or is it going to resolve any moment now? im a bit confused, also polymarket should update UI to account for different timezones
if it resolves in 2 weeks by the listed date then why not js have the listed date be 2 weeks in the future? that would make it much more clear
Go to the market, Israel, close the sky until. Buy yes, and you will profit.
why are u spamming this on every market
I am making possibly -EV bets here for hedging purposes, let me know here if you are interested in big orders for month end
I am interested, what price?
Let me think more and get back, having some second thought since it might not be a great hedge
lmk what u want bro im always willing to provide liq for a +ev bet
the avengers
yet another scam market
I don't understand this one. It's not possible for it to resolve YES legitimately for the 24th. But pricing 15 cents
You are stupid.
how is he stupid i dont get it, it says since market creation
Read the rules
Nopp
So a land invasion and occupation of territory, that doesn't involve air strikes, is not a qualifying military action? Per the third paragraph.
Mate who tf is gonna invade without airstrikes
Kurds.
Wait what? Ceasefire? We’re in a permanent peace though? 2 week ceasefire doesn’t count 🤡
permanent peace is for the first Iran War. Now it is the second Iran War.
😂😂😂😂
上次无耻的永久协议，这次又要故技重施，再次抢劫了吗？
上次永久协议不是选的是吗？抢了我那么多钱，又来恶心，搞这种盘。