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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates Vol $6,709,880 134 traders

≥ 4.5%5%
4.0%28%
3.75%31%
3.0%2%
$6,709,880 Vol. Fed Rates

Outcomes

15
Chance
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.75%
<1%
3.0%
2%
3.25%
2%
3.5%
13%
3.75%
31%
4.0%
28% ▲ 1
4.25%
18% ▲ 2
≥ 4.5%
5% ▼ 1
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
<1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x21ff…0d71 SELL Yes $12.23 2h ago
  • 0xa575…f2d0 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 22
  • 0x5341…92d6 SELL Yes $0.44 Jul 22
  • 0x4f6f…f071 SELL No $74.37 Jul 21
  • 0x4f6f…f071 BUY No $45.50 Jul 21
  • 0x4f6f…f071 BUY No $28.95 Jul 21
  • 0xa23c…584a SELL No $22.48 Jul 21
  • 0xa23c…584a BUY No $22.51 Jul 21
  • 0xb2db…140a SELL Yes $11.95 Jul 21
  • 0x18ab…2b33 SELL No $70.82 Jul 19
  • 0x18ab…2b33 BUY No $52.60 Jul 19
  • 0x18ab…2b33 BUY No $18.30 Jul 19
  • 0xba5e…8122 BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 19
  • 0x49c8…3827 SELL No $47.18 Jul 19
  • 0x49c8…3827 BUY No $22.83 Jul 19
  • 0x49c8…3827 BUY No $24.40 Jul 19
  • 0x8359…8a94 SELL No $72.22 Jul 19
  • 0x8359…8a94 BUY No $60.46 Jul 19
  • 0x8359…8a94 BUY No $11.83 Jul 19
  • 0x35b2…1b6c SELL No $50.30 Jul 18
  • 0x35b2…1b6c BUY No $43.65 Jul 18
  • 0x35b2…1b6c BUY No $6.70 Jul 18
  • 0xccdd…4fc9 SELL No $9.38 Jul 18
  • 0xccdd…4fc9 SELL No $8.33 Jul 18
  • 0xccdd…4fc9 BUY No $17.74 Jul 18
  • 0xa89b…1a93 SELL No $12.98 Jul 18
  • 0xa89b…1a93 BUY No $13.00 Jul 18
  • 0xba5e…8122 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 16
  • 0x7580…853d SELL Yes $0.19 Jul 16
  • 0x7580…853d SELL Yes $0.24 Jul 16
  • 0x7580…853d SELL Yes $0.35 Jul 16
  • 0x7580…853d SELL Yes $0.90 Jul 16
  • 0x7580…853d SELL Yes $1.54 Jul 16
  • 0x7580…853d SELL Yes $0.27 Jul 16
  • 0xccb3…c2e4 SELL Yes $0.66 Jul 15
  • 0x03d5…97af BUY Yes $11.85 Jul 15
  • 0x80a4…22cc SELL No $72.88 Jul 14
  • 0x9869…500d BUY Yes $1.20 Jul 14
  • 0xccb3…c2e4 BUY Yes $0.53 Jul 14
  • 0xf524…8178 SELL Yes $0.18 Jul 14

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Comments

Hummershark Jun 17

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

JollyBully Mar 28

JollyBully Mar 28

JollyBully Mar 28