Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
Outcomes
4Recent trades
25- 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL Yes $3.53 19m ago
- 0x0a06…921a BUY No $1.00 13h ago
- 0x5669…0f13 BUY No $4.05 15h ago
- 0x81de…20d4 SELL Yes $2.65 20h ago
- 0xaa81…aaf7 SELL Yes $4.98 22h ago
- 0x5675…f6a6 SELL Yes $39.37 Jul 22
- 0x97f3…0eba BUY No $400.00 Jul 22
- 0xa0d3…5b5e BUY Yes $11.88 Jul 22
- 0xbeef…f919 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 22
- 0x81de…20d4 BUY Yes $4.95 Jul 22
- 0xb69b…890c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xf593…1793 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xe6e5…8e81 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x8444…7baa BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xd4e8…baac BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xfb7f…fb67 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xea85…12dd BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x5631…3553 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x8242…0f3c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0xca6e…73e8 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x3826…2bc7 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x5217…8201 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x020e…69c1 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x1bcb…435c BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
- 0x01ee…c603 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 22
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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