Sign Up
← Markets

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Politics Vol $135,985 50 traders

Yes7%
No93%
$135,985 Vol. Politics
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
7%

Recent trades

25
  • 0xd600…b66e SELL Yes $1.39 7h ago
  • 0xd600…b66e BUY Yes $0.73 12h ago
  • 0xd600…b66e SELL Yes $1.83 12h ago
  • 0xd600…b66e BUY Yes $1.34 12h ago
  • 0xd600…b66e SELL Yes $1.43 12h ago
  • 0x51ae…d57c BUY Yes $80.00 12h ago
  • 0x5eec…f4e2 BUY No $69.67 22h ago
  • 0xd600…b66e BUY Yes $0.34 Jul 22
  • 0xf9b7…60a4 BUY No $61.20 Jul 22
  • 0x5eec…f4e2 BUY No $74.24 Jul 18
  • 0xdf27…e6e4 SELL No $175.12 Jul 18
  • 0x40a6…133c BUY No $78.31 Jul 18
  • 0xdf27…e6e4 SELL No $515.88 Jul 18
  • 0x69f9…3c3b SELL No $1.24 Jul 17
  • 0x69f9…3c3b BUY No $1.25 Jul 17
  • 0x8f0b…8be2 BUY No $20.53 Jul 17
  • 0x5886…d68f SELL Yes $3.35 Jul 16
  • 0x5eec…f4e2 BUY No $102.49 Jul 12
  • 0xdef5…fa02 BUY No $1.00 Jul 12
  • 0x489a…fff2 SELL Yes $0.02 Jul 12
  • 0x489a…fff2 SELL Yes $0.12 Jul 12
  • 0x5eec…f4e2 BUY No $55.85 Jul 12
  • 0x4a81…12e1 SELL No $10.06 Jul 12
  • 0x00cd…c0ae SELL No $4.65 Jul 12
  • 0x3298…68b1 SELL No $1.00 Jul 12

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Comments