Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

The way the referendum question has been worded would a « yes » vote even resolve to « yes » on this bet? A referendum to see if they really want to hold a real referendum to separate seems like it could be challenged

Are we even having a referendum? For anyone not following that market, here are my comments from there (that market was interesting—and lucrative—but this is the one people actually care about): What a roller coaster! People will say this uncertainty threatens business investment here, and they are correct. But it's not the prospect of separation that threatens investment; it's this: if it’s so hard to simply ask a question in this broken country, imagine how difficult it is to build something, or accomplish a more challenging political goal than an opinion poll. The "no kings" crowd is invoking the king to justify not hearing the opinion of the people (and this is not a fringe position but both the mainstream and the legal argument). "Please, come invest in Canada. Our monarchy and our climate-change-is-an-existential-crisis prime minister will collaborate with our tribal leaders to protect your investment. Don't worry."

The reason asking the question doesn't threaten investment with additional uncertainty is because, per the chart above (or should I say, per my life savings), separation is not happening. Spend five minutes talking to people in Alberta (especially conservatives) and you will realize that. Not to mention the fact that the people who want to separate are generally people who work for a living, and the people who don't are the ones who stay at home being scared by legacy media. Only one of those groups has nothing better to do than show up to a polling place on a weekday. This is not Brexit. Alberta is not a former dominant global superpower choosing whether to take our country back by expelling an external force. We are deciding whether to decide whether to (sic) embark on an impossible political quest to break up a country that helped win WWII and embrace massive uncertainty by creating a tiny new landlocked state.

I'm curious why you believe this should resolve No if we now have clarification that a "desire for independence" which qualifies here has already been established in the other market? https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-before-2027 Per the rules, "any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence" will qualify. The referendum O.C. 160/2026 approved on May 28, 2026 and scheduled for October 19, 2026 seeks to establish whether Albertans want the province to remain in Canada or want the Government of Alberta to begin the legal process required to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation, and therefore qualifies towards this market's resolution

You're asking the right question: why did the price on this market stay flat even as the other market went from 60 to 100? It's because the no side of this market is a GIC and all you're seeing is people's cost of capital. In lay terms, people still have to vote and they are overwhelming going to vote no.

Literal russian propaganda (voiced by Caleb Hammer) is pushing this btw.: [link removed]

This will start to rise once vote announced today

57% of Albertans are "strongly against" independence. In order for YES to win they'd need to get every undecided voter, and then convert a significant chunk of "strongly againsts". Not going to happen.

57% of *Albertan boomers who answered their landline phones.

Deal

Alberta will be free

This has absolutely nothing to do with the USA. Alberta is done with the cesspool that Canada has turned into.

It's hard to be a country when everyone is divided

Referendum a lock. yes will be close.