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Will any country leave NATO by...?

NATO Vol $1,381,120 50 traders

June 30, 20260%
December 31, 20264%
December 31, 20250%
$1,381,120 Vol. NATO

Outcomes

3
Chance
December 31, 2025 Resolved
0%
June 30, 2026 Resolved
0%
December 31, 2026
4%

Recent trades

40
  • 0xa50e…c10f BUY No $12.20 4h ago
  • 0x17b3…5e56 BUY No $5.44 6h ago
  • 0x0013…3c30 SELL Yes $1.02 17h ago
  • 0xf94f…ffc0 SELL Yes $1.73 Jul 22
  • 0x0a49…e634 BUY No $4.00 Jul 22
  • 0xf741…03c9 BUY No $7.00 Jul 21
  • 0x64ce…3c70 SELL No $4.79 Jul 19
  • 0x64ce…3c70 SELL Yes $0.20 Jul 19
  • 0x236f…1b31 SELL Yes $13.50 Jul 19
  • 0x8419…36b9 SELL No $649.12 Jul 18
  • 0xb4df…db33 SELL No $622.36 Jul 18
  • 0xd7ef…d801 SELL No $601.32 Jul 18
  • 0x18ff…f634 SELL No $636.70 Jul 18
  • 0xd64e…479c SELL No $593.68 Jul 18
  • 0x0213…31a8 SELL No $578.38 Jul 18
  • 0x161a…b515 BUY No $100.00 Jul 18
  • 0x77b7…7ff3 SELL No $4.11 Jul 17
  • 0xa415…6384 SELL No $14.32 Jul 17
  • 0x4bed…f12d SELL No $496.16 Jul 17
  • 0x4b18…ae6a SELL No $531.54 Jul 17
  • 0x1464…7605 SELL No $493.30 Jul 17
  • 0x332b…bb9d SELL No $579.34 Jul 17
  • 0x82ab…1d3b SELL No $508.59 Jul 17
  • 0x0e43…6bc1 SELL Yes $23.63 Jul 17
  • 0xb8fc…fbea SELL No $1.35 Jul 16
  • 0x66cb…f1e2 SELL No $2.63 Jun 30
  • 0x6061…ec4b SELL No $7.30 Jun 29
  • 0xc4bc…76bc SELL Yes $0.01 Jun 28
  • 0xa996…34b5 SELL No $0.22 Jun 28
  • 0xd507…4ba7 SELL No $4.99 Jun 28
  • 0xd507…4ba7 BUY No $5.00 Jun 28
  • 0x6a07…2952 SELL No $0.15 Jun 28
  • 0x3298…68b1 SELL Yes $0.50 Jun 28
  • 0xa996…34b5 SELL No $1.38 Jun 28
  • 0x6a07…2952 SELL No $2.07 Jun 28
  • 0xa996…34b5 BUY No $1.57 Jun 28
  • 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $2.03 Jun 28
  • 0x227b…76f9 BUY No $2.09 Jun 28
  • 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $0.09 Jun 28
  • 0x6a07…2952 BUY No $2.21 Jun 28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

0x6120f232678c5a79f2af057b34100f2B5c3BB06a-1767832584697 Apr 24

Slovenia, Spain, and the United States. It's odd that the probability here is lower than for the United States alone.

0x7b7f0E1a3c5e091aCd0ddaAeaD1201F106573f4f-1768426621821 May 6

So odd

Prosperity168 Apr 2

In May 2020, the Trump administration announced its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty and ignored the legal notification requirements. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, at the time led by Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel, issued an opinion arguing that the notice requirements infringed on the president’s constitutional authority over foreign affairs. “The President’s power to withdraw from treaties flows from his constitutional role as the ‘sole organ of the nation in its external relations,’ granting him discretion in conducting foreign affairs and implementing or terminating treaties without congressional constraints on diplomatic decisions,” Engel wrote in the administration’s final days.

saneperson Apr 3

bro how do you still have money to gamble, and why are you still betting 💀

Prosperity168 Apr 3

Why are you betting if you’re only up 700$ what’s the point? That’s one dinner sir 🤣

TDD223 Apr 1

hes going to invoke the article and use it as a bargaining chip

philou747 Apr 1

[link removed].uk/news/world/middle-east/[link removed]

0xDFbde4f388F161168806d9bdF736Cb685C0a1cd4-1763288381371 Feb 21

nato will dissolves before July

charlee13 Jan 20

what u ppl think about this right now ?

LucyJoe Jan 17

Denmark probably wants to withdraw, but if it does, Greenland will be attacked.

JacinthHenry-Martin Nov 4

Hungary withdraws from NATO by end of 2025 amid Orban's pro-Russia pivot.

JulesAnthony Nov 4

Turkey exits NATO by December 2025 amid escalating tensions with US.

nwo Jul 20

So it becomes more than likely that Ukraine may fall and thus it begs the question, what’s the point of being part of Nato and pay heavy taxes to USA if it can’t protect Ukraine. Like who’s next on the chopping board?

0x78cfbE1a6ecBD0b6118CB84f8FF4eF48904BCb09-1762357822365 Nov 6

Ukraine is not part of NATO so it doesnt pay taxes. USA has no obligation to "defend" Ukraine. the average american cant even point to Ukraine on the map. Other than minerals there is nothing to gain from Ukraine. most of those minerals are located in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine.

0xf35jsv80u3nos0uvsd Jan 12

100%

thecaricature Mar 19

Ukraine isn't part of NATO.

nwo Jul 20

Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, India, and other countries are all supplying Russia with troops or weapons.

nwo Jul 20

The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't or can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily.

nwo Jul 20

Gena, I agree. Other countries are just -tax- slaves.

nwo Jul 20

The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't/can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily. Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, Laos, Afganistan, and I think India are all supplying Russia with troops and / or weapons.

pup1 Mar 23

15% return in 9months is not terrible ig

GenaTheBondKilIer Mar 6

The only one that can leave is USA, because other members are just slaves

CoffeeLover Mar 3

Why would anyone want to leave NATO? That would be dumb

Auzz Feb 22

Turkey just said they want to join BRICS

CoffeeLover Mar 3

So what? It's possible to be in both NATO and BRICS

bettingboy Feb 19

Why would any country leave now when things are getting even more dangerous? There's no talks in any country and the process would take more than a year. Free money

SystemSympathizer Feb 17

Don't they say 2025 is the year NATO collapses?

dodged-a-bullet Feb 14

No country has ever officially left NATO. It is worth noting, however, that in 1966 France withdrew from NATO’s integrated military command structure while remaining a member of the alliance, and it rejoined full integration in 2009

Confrmed.US.Alien Feb 14

Good question