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Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Geopolitics Vol $161,739 50 traders

Yes7%
No93%
$161,739 Vol. Geopolitics
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
7%

Recent trades

25
  • 0x627c…7e1b BUY No $2.00 1h ago
  • 0x235b…6b6c BUY No $171.76 7h ago
  • 0x3a23…0f72 BUY Yes $25.90 14h ago
  • 0x93fb…3e4a BUY Yes $247.85 18h ago
  • 0x8d01…0267 SELL No $0.99 Jul 22
  • 0xe6d3…880f SELL No $0.99 Jul 22
  • 0xdfb9…4fe2 SELL No $0.99 Jul 22
  • 0xfce4…ebc1 SELL No $0.99 Jul 22
  • 0xc371…564b SELL No $0.99 Jul 22
  • 0x8d01…0267 BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xdfb9…4fe2 BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xe6d3…880f BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xfce4…ebc1 BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0xc371…564b BUY No $1.00 Jul 22
  • 0x43fd…59d3 SELL No $74.19 Jul 22
  • 0xee13…10f8 BUY No $44.23 Jul 22
  • 0x6046…afc3 SELL No $18.54 Jul 22
  • 0xa86f…022c SELL No $47.28 Jul 22
  • 0xdd1d…bbf0 BUY Yes $36.50 Jul 21
  • 0xd04f…bc79 BUY No $5.00 Jul 21
  • 0x5bf7…6b55 BUY No $2.00 Jul 21
  • 0xc602…7fc1 SELL No $463.48 Jul 21
  • 0xbeff…08e4 SELL Yes $5.14 Jul 21
  • 0x91ca…0957 SELL Yes $3.72 Jul 21
  • 0x91ca…0957 SELL Yes $3.45 Jul 21

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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