← Markets

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

World Vol $1,988,905 50 traders

June 300%
December 310%
November 300%
March 310%
Loading chart…
$1,988,905 Vol. World

Outcomes

6
Chance
December 31
4% ▼ 3
November 30 Resolved
0%
December 31 Resolved
0%
January 31 Resolved
0%
March 31 Resolved
0%
June 30 Resolved
0%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x141a…fc65 BUY No $1.50 6h ago
  • 0xc0ef…3784 BUY No $12.00 10h ago
  • 0x4a7f…3797 SELL Yes $2.00 17h ago
  • 0x3b78…5ce6 SELL No $10.72 17h ago
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $4.00 18h ago
  • 0xa211…c0e1 SELL Yes $1.00 22h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $5.14 Jul 22
  • 0xf8d9…622d SELL Yes $0.36 Jul 22
  • 0x6979…8e2e BUY No $9.00 Jul 20
  • 0x2778…8547 SELL Yes $0.38 Jul 20
  • 0xf746…411c BUY Yes $4.00 Jul 19
  • 0x9af0…5816 SELL No $68.75 Jul 18
  • 0x0b62…b8ab BUY Yes $0.70 Jul 18
  • 0x87c5…546d BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
  • 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL Yes $2.87 Jul 18
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 SELL No $5.52 Jul 18
  • 0x172b…a0c9 BUY Yes $20.00 Jul 18
  • 0x172b…a0c9 BUY Yes $3.85 Jul 18
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL No $46.00 Jul 18
  • 0x172b…a0c9 BUY Yes $6.48 Jul 18
  • 0xdfe2…cfc5 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 18
  • 0xc8a2…c9b6 SELL Yes $2.00 Jul 18
  • 0xc88a…7e26 SELL Yes $0.08 Jul 18
  • 0x0b62…b8ab BUY Yes $0.50 Jul 17
  • 0x1c8c…6c11 SELL Yes $4.40 Jul 17
  • 0x0e32…535b SELL No $199.80 Jun 30
  • 0x145b…8f5c SELL No $1.01 Jun 30
  • 0x55c7…96c3 SELL No $6.39 Jun 30
  • 0xc94e…55dc SELL No $1.01 Jun 30
  • 0x560e…85f5 SELL No $1.01 Jun 30
  • 0x7122…c9e4 SELL No $1.01 Jun 30
  • 0xbbff…ca93 SELL No $1.01 Jun 30
  • 0x28fc…4e92 SELL No $1.01 Jun 30
  • 0xc4bf…7b36 SELL No $18.19 Jun 29
  • 0xff4e…5502 SELL Yes $0.58 Jun 29
  • 0xee67…67a6 SELL Yes $2.52 Jun 29
  • 0x0392…6b99 BUY No $141.67 Jun 29
  • 0xc4bf…7b36 BUY No $18.20 Jun 29
  • 0x7770…a7f0 BUY No $208.50 Jun 29
  • 0x52dc…6bf5 BUY No $206.00 Jun 29

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Comments

BetsAhead Jul 9

Several individuals listed on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) "People" page have direct and significant connections to the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), particularly through its Board of Directors and specialized fellowships. While ISW operates as an independent, non-partisan think tank, its leadership structure is deeply intertwined with the U.S. national security establishment. The presence of a former CIA Director (Petraeus), a former Army Intelligence officer (Gilmore), and executives from a top-tier intelligence contractor (CACI) on its Board of Directors ensures that the organization maintains strong, direct ties to the U.S. Intelligence Community.

abdoohl Jun 13

Cases of HIV infection have been identified in the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov and Kupiansk, stated the Deputy Minister of Health of the Kharkov Regional Military Administration, Pyakyshev

Venedictov Mar 29

Получается, что Пыня опять напиздел, что Купянск взяли.

pink.impala Mar 17

Lost all my money in Russia captures, gonn

cidesui77 Mar 20

Thank you for your attention to this matter

mlrs Mar 8

vitalik hello

Azrarn Feb 5

We need June 30 market!

tsybka Feb 17

done

as87287 Jan 27

According to Russia, Kupyansk was captured in December 2025. What about the map?

0x637CFEb761B148AF0F6D01a58cA4d4AeE05bf0a1-1766050524049 Jan 30

according to ruzzia they should have captured all of UKR in three days, maps are updating a little slow it seems

BetsAhead Jul 9

Unfortunately Polymarket uses ISW maps, which are heavily biased towards the Western intelligence community. It is in that way similar to Radio Free Europe. Institute for the Study of War is founded by Kimberly Ellen Kagan who is married to Frederick Kagan. Kimberly and Frederick Kagan have cultivated close ties to the Defence Department. Frederick's brother Robert Kagan’s wife, Victoria Nuland, is the state department official who very publicly supported Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution—the overthrow of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, which led Russia to seize Crimea and give military support to secessionist rebels in the Donbass.

AuthenticDemigod Jan 24

COPEIANSK

dracooo Jan 15

This has already happened, according to other sources.

OraculumNobius Jan 19

By sources, do you mean fake Russian propaganda? According to their sources, they have already taken over half of Europe and Alaska. Better sell me some more “NO.”

ThePredict0r Jan 27

Even pro-Russia sources are saying neither side has the manpower to establish control over the entire town.

0x637CFEb761B148AF0F6D01a58cA4d4AeE05bf0a1-1766050524049 Jan 15

where'd all the ruz fanbois go?

Irisy Jan 7

With only about 60 Russians left in the basements and the supply lines cut off, I don't see how they take the whole city by next month unless they literally level it with glide bombs first.

ajtsoK Jan 8

alot changes once the weather changes

0xb705c996584580A94467Db598C96d88677A9366C-1766611664098 Jan 12

The weather currently favors Russia.

ajtsoK Jan 12

fog wise or temperature wise, elaborate

yhzlsmk Dec 27

[link removed]

OraculumNobius Dec 28

fake russian propoganda.

yhzlsmk Dec 29

That's fair. Still learning how this market works. Thx

nuclearpie Jan 18

it is not even russian russian propoganda

tg-COPIUMBET Dec 21

Unreal prices =)

OtaBenga Dec 28

Hahahaha

SatoshiBladerunner Dec 21

Price discovery on this is lagging behind the whale flow. Significant alpha if you track the top holders.

Nardo99 Dec 17

We need will Ukraine capture Kupiansk market.

ez4me07 Dec 13

4to s EBALOM RUSNYA?

OraculumNobius Dec 14

idealyno chel)))

Skovorodnikov Dec 16

Chel s otrizatelnym profit eje chto govorit)

seaman86 Dec 17

Vsosaly rashiki ebanie!

pink.impala Dec 13

Zelensky there and taking selfie so i increased my holdings

JesusCrust Dec 14

Wrong direction bro, you bought yes.

johngotti Dec 15

lol that cracked me up

KingHam Dec 3

Having isw as a judicator is shameful and should at least be named in the title. Kupyansk was declared captured a month ago.

DumplingBMF Dec 3

I agree. Everything should be resolved based on Vladimir Putin's statements.

Hexxxagon Dec 3

so Putin's a better ground truth in your oppinion

0x366717f90136C6740edC1c3d977A2CC40982A875-1759154502408 Dec 4

Or maybe on the geolocated data instead? that shows Russians waving flags all over the city? Or should we just ignore both reality and the statements confirming said reality instead?

DumplingBMF Dec 4

What geo were there in the western part of the city?

OraculumNobius Dec 7

Can you show me even one video with fascist flags in the western part of the city?

Pupsikov Dec 9

[link removed] enjoy true info for once

GenaTsidrusni Dec 16

fascists means russia

PixelPeso9 Dec 1

the real signal is in the flow not the comments, always has been

0x366717f90136C6740edC1c3d977A2CC40982A875-1759154502408 Nov 30

ISW wont be able to deny reality for much longer..

0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 5

How do you know reality?

0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 5

Putin told you that Kyiv is in 3 days, and you still think that Russian troops are near Kiev.

0x366717f90136C6740edC1c3d977A2CC40982A875-1759154502408 Nov 30

Kupiansk is under Russian control.. and ALL of the Ukrainian counter attacks have been a complete disaster for them. Russia is quietly stacking infantry and equipment in the city itself to prepare for a push further south and west.

OraculumNobius Dec 1

Russia has been driven out of half of Kupiansk, Ukraine has cut off supply routes.

0x366717f90136C6740edC1c3d977A2CC40982A875-1759154502408 Dec 2

There is 0 Ukrainian pressence in Kupiansk.. Its just suicidal counterattacks that delay the inevitable.

Pupsikov Dec 9

Do you even believe what you say? They're outnumbered 1 to 11, which is a conservative approach and they're taking land back?

0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 12

What's up with the mug, shorty??

oleksandra Dec 12

They are getting information with a huge delay, wait a week until russian tg channels finally acknowledge reality

pink.impala Nov 27

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1372: Situation on northeastern front: Ukrainian army's continuous attacks west of Kupiansk led to some successes around the locality of Kindrashivka. Ukrainian forces have now entered the first houses to the south and are attempting to drive Russian army out of the area by cutting off its supply lines.

0x2D30a5fbf10070b03baeeEC5D3c5F6380F4d41a5-1763040962480 Nov 27

Yeah, other sources say that kupyansk is long gone despite efforts to re-take it from the south but hopelessly, while the russian are already working on encircling Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi to the southeast, and some reports ay they're claiming the train station there

pink.impala Nov 27

WOW so you actually made it your PURPOSE IN LIFE to always take opposite view of mine and start argument

0x2D30a5fbf10070b03baeeEC5D3c5F6380F4d41a5-1763040962480 Nov 27

chill i have no idea who you are

OraculumNobius Nov 27

Russians lie. Always.

0x2D30a5fbf10070b03baeeEC5D3c5F6380F4d41a5-1763040962480 Nov 27

Both sides lie. Prob nov 30 won't be updated to red, but dec 31 is definitely a real possibility

0x385a6F0729263CC1dE8a4F5a12E4Dd2AD5E0fe11-1764233179666 Nov 27

You people are absolutely fcking sick. I wish I could bet on each one of you dying painfully from cancer while your relatives watch. Fcking disgrace of a human race each and every one of you who bet on these things..